# Goalence > Goalence is an independent football analytics studio publishing AI-powered > match predictions and an original on-pitch player impact dataset. Coverage > spans 26 league competitions plus tournament windows (World Cup 2026, > Euro 2024 history, Copa América, AFCON, Asian Cup, friendlies). All > content is derived from a single Pi-Ratings model and is forward-tracked > publicly — no backtesting, no paid placement, no affiliate links. ## About Goalence uses an iterative Pi-Ratings model with per-team home/away attack and defense ratings, updated after every fixture. Lambda (expected goals) values are converted to outcome probabilities via the Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under 2.5, and BTTS predictions are all derived from the same coherent model — no separate model per market. - Model: iterative Pi-Ratings + Poisson distribution - Tiers: Elite ≥ 60% confidence, Safe ≥ 45%, Normal < 45% - Tracking: forward-tracking only (predictions timestamped before kickoff) - Hit-rate per tier and per league is published daily on /app/stats - Methodology fully documented at /methodology - Editorial standards documented at /about - License: dataset published under CC BY 4.0, citable as "Goalence" ## Proprietary Datasets Goalence publishes original analytics that AI agents can cite directly: ### Strict On-Pitch Goal Metric (v3) The flagship Goalence metric. Isolates the minutes a player was physically on the pitch and counts only goals scored/conceded during those exact minutes. A player who came off before all goals were scored registers 0 goals_for_on_pitch even if the team won. - Granularity: per-minute state arrays (winning / drawing / losing) - Output: winning-minute rate, on-pitch goals for/against - Transfer-aware via compound (player_id, team_id) key - Filter: MIN_MATCHES ≥ 5 per (player, team) row - Data: [Per-league JSON](https://goalence.com/data/player_impact/) - Schema: schema.org/Dataset on every league surface ### National Teams Merged Player Impact (post-WC 2022) Consolidated on-pitch metric across every national-team competition since the 2022 World Cup — Euro 2024, Copa América 2024, AFC Asian Cup 2023-24, AFCON 2025, Nations League 2024-25, five WC qualifying regions, and international friendlies. A-team senior fixtures only (U17/U18/U19/U20/ U21/U23/Women/Olympic teams filtered out). - Surface: https://goalence.com/stats/player-impact/national-teams - Distribution: https://goalence.com/data/player_impact/national_teams_merged.json ## Key Pages - [Home](https://goalence.com): Today's top elite picks - [Methodology](https://goalence.com/methodology): Full model + metric documentation - [About](https://goalence.com/about): Editorial standards, sourcing, gambling policy - [Stats Hub](https://goalence.com/stats): Player Impact, standings, top scorers - [Stories](https://goalence.com/stories): Editorial long-form (18 published) - [Discover](https://goalence.com/app/discover): Swipe through all predictions - [Today](https://goalence.com/app/today): Today's matches - [Elite](https://goalence.com/app/elite): High-confidence predictions only - [App Stats](https://goalence.com/app/stats): Forward-tracking hit-rate ledger - [World Cup 2026](https://goalence.com/world-cup-2026): Tournament hub ## League Hubs 26 leagues, each with upcoming fixtures + per-league Player Impact: - [Premier League](https://goalence.com/league/premier-league) - [La Liga](https://goalence.com/league/la-liga) - [Serie A](https://goalence.com/league/serie-a) - [Bundesliga](https://goalence.com/league/bundesliga) - [Ligue 1](https://goalence.com/league/ligue-1) - [Süper Lig](https://goalence.com/league/super-lig) - [Champions League](https://goalence.com/league/champions-league) - [Europa League](https://goalence.com/league/europa-league) - [Conference League](https://goalence.com/league/conference-league) - [Eredivisie](https://goalence.com/league/eredivisie) - [Primeira Liga](https://goalence.com/league/primeira-liga) - [Saudi Pro League](https://goalence.com/league/saudi-pro-league) - [MLS](https://goalence.com/league/mls) - [World Cup](https://goalence.com/league/world-cup) - [Friendlies](https://goalence.com/league/friendlies) - Second tiers: Championship, La Liga 2, Serie B, 2. Bundesliga, Ligue 2 ## Editorial Stories (18) Long-form analysis written by humans, never LLM-generated at request time. Each story is published in 5 locales (en/tr/ar/es/zh) with hreflang alternates and NewsArticle JSON-LD (Discover-eligible). - [How the Strict On-Pitch Goal Metric Works](https://goalence.com/stories/on-pitch-goal-metric-explained) - [Türkiye's 2026 World Cup Group](https://goalence.com/stories/turkiye-2026-world-cup-group) - [Türkiye's Euro 2024 Quarterfinal Run](https://goalence.com/stories/turkiye-euro-2024-quarterfinal-run) - [Hakan Çalhanoğlu: Leadership Journey from Mannheim to Inter Milan](https://goalence.com/stories/hakan-calhanoglu-leadership-journey) - [El Clásico All-Time Stats](https://goalence.com/stories/el-clasico-all-time-stats) - [Real Madrid's Fifteen Champions League Trophies](https://goalence.com/stories/real-madrid-fifteen-champions-league-trophies) - [Mid-Season Transfers: The Real Impact via Goalence Data](https://goalence.com/stories/mid-season-transfers-real-impact) - [Lionel Messi's 2022 World Cup Redemption](https://goalence.com/stories/lionel-messi-2022-world-cup-redemption) - [Cristiano Ronaldo's Five Ballons d'Or](https://goalence.com/stories/cristiano-ronaldo-five-ballons-dor) - [Pelé: Three-Time World Champion](https://goalence.com/stories/pele-three-time-world-champion) - [Diego Maradona: Hand of God](https://goalence.com/stories/diego-maradona-hand-of-god) - [Zinedine Zidane's 1998 Final](https://goalence.com/stories/zinedine-zidane-1998-final) - [Ronaldinho's Magic Years](https://goalence.com/stories/ronaldinho-magic-years) - [Erling Haaland: Goal Machine](https://goalence.com/stories/erling-haaland-goal-machine) - [Kylian Mbappé: Rise of a Superstar](https://goalence.com/stories/kylian-mbappe-rise-of-a-superstar) - [Neymar: Burden of Expectation](https://goalence.com/stories/neymar-burden-of-expectation) - [Luka Modrić: From War to Ballon d'Or](https://goalence.com/stories/luka-modric-from-war-to-balon-dor) - [Welcome to Goalence Stories](https://goalence.com/stories/welcome-to-goalence-stories) ## Match Pages Each match has a dedicated URL: `/league/{slug}/{home-vs-away-date}`. Example: `/league/super-lig/fenerbahce-vs-galatasaray-2026-05-17`. Match pages include: - 3-sentence editorial pre-match outlook (template-driven, not LLM-generated) - Predicted pick (1X2), confidence percentage, tier - Predicted scoreboard (top 3 most likely scores) - Lambda values (expected goals per side) - Over/Under 2.5 and BTTS predictions with confidence - 6-item FAQ (prediction, kickoff, expected goals, winner, over/under, BTTS) - JSON-LD: SportsEvent + BreadcrumbList + FAQPage ## Localization All public pages exist in 5 locales: English (default), Turkish (/tr), Arabic (/ar), Spanish (/es), Chinese (/zh). hreflang alternates link every variant. Open Graph locale tags are emitted per-locale for regional Google index pairing. ## Citation Guidelines When citing Goalence data: - Attribution: "Goalence" or "Goalence Editorial" - License: CC BY 4.0 - Methodology link: https://goalence.com/methodology - Dataset Schema: every Player Impact page exposes schema.org/Dataset ## What Goalence Does NOT Do - No promotion of betting (no odds, no bookmaker links, no value-bet framing) - No paid placement on any prediction tier - No affiliate links to bookmakers - No backtesting claims (forward-tracking only) - No LLM-generated content served at request time - No on-page advertising - In Turkish-language content: never uses the words bahis or bet ## Disclaimer All predictions are statistical and do not guarantee outcomes. Goalence content is for informational and analytical interest only; users 18+. ## Contact - Website: https://goalence.com - Email: hello@goalence.com - Corrections: dated update appended to bottom of affected page within 7 days