Prediction Accuracy
Predictions are logged before kickoff and hit/miss is automatically calculated after the match ends. Not a retrospective backtest — real forward-tracked performance across leagues, national teams, and continental cups.
Tracking Started
May 24, 2026
Pending
6
predictions
Resolved
90
matches
Overall Performance
Match ResultMatch Result (1X2)The traditional outcome market: Home win (1), Draw (X), or Away win (2). Goalence outputs three probabilities summing to 100% for every fixture.→
67.8%
90 matches
Over/Under 2.5Over/Under 2.5A prediction market that resolves Over if the total goals in the match are 3 or more, Under if 2 or fewer. Computed from Goalence's two lambdas: P(home_goals + away_goals ≥ 3).→
61.1%
90 matches
Both Teams ScoreBTTS — Both Teams To ScoreA prediction market that resolves Yes if both teams score at least one goal in the match, No otherwise. Goalence outputs a BTTS probability for every fixture by integrating the Poisson distribution over scorelines.→
66.7%
90 matches
By Confidence TierConfidence ThresholdGoalence groups predictions into three tiers by the probability of the picked outcome: Elite (≥ 70%), Safe (55-70%), and Normal (< 55%). Accuracy is reported separately for each tier so users can see how the model performs at its strongest signal.→
Elite
Confidence ≥ 70%
Match Result
75.0%
n=32
Over/Under 2.5
80.0%
n=15
Both Teams Score
77.3%
n=22
Solid
Confidence 55–70%
Match Result
79.0%
n=19
Over/Under 2.5
59.3%
n=59
Both Teams Score
60.8%
n=51
Normal
Confidence < 55%
Match Result
56.4%
n=39
Over/Under 2.5
50.0%
n=16
Both Teams Score
70.6%
n=17
By Tournament
Recent Results
Paraguay vs France
0-1
Match Result
Away · 73%
✓ Hit
Over/Under 2.5
Under 2.5
✓ Hit
Both Teams Score
BTTS: No
✓ Hit
Canada vs Morocco
0-3
Match Result
Away · 51%
✓ Hit
Over/Under 2.5
Under 2.5
✗ Miss
Both Teams Score
BTTS: No
✓ Hit
Colombia vs Ghana
1-0
Match Result
Home · 70%
✓ Hit
Over/Under 2.5
Under 2.5
✓ Hit
Both Teams Score
BTTS: No
✓ Hit
Argentina vs Cape Verde Islands
3-2
Match Result
Home · 85%
✓ Hit
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
✓ Hit
Both Teams Score
BTTS: No
✗ Miss
Australia vs Egypt
1-1
Match Result
Home · 37%
✗ Miss
Over/Under 2.5
Under 2.5
✓ Hit
Both Teams Score
BTTS: No
✗ Miss
Switzerland vs Algeria
2-0
Match Result
Home · 52%
✓ Hit
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
✗ Miss
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes
✗ Miss
Portugal vs Croatia
2-1
Match Result
Home · 57%
✓ Hit
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
✓ Hit
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes
✓ Hit
Spain vs Austria
3-0
Match Result
Home · 72%
✓ Hit
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
✓ Hit
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes
✗ Miss
USA vs Bosnia & Herzegovina
2-0
Match Result
Home · 72%
✓ Hit
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
✗ Miss
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes
✗ Miss
Belgium vs Senegal
3-2
Match Result
Home · 48%
✓ Hit
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
✓ Hit
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes
✓ Hit
England vs Congo DR
2-1
Match Result
Home · 74%
✓ Hit
Over/Under 2.5
Under 2.5
✗ Miss
Both Teams Score
BTTS: No
✗ Miss
Mexico vs Ecuador
2-0
Match Result
Home · 42%
✓ Hit
Over/Under 2.5
Under 2.5
✓ Hit
Both Teams Score
BTTS: No
✓ Hit
France vs Sweden
3-0
Match Result
Home · 73%
✓ Hit
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
✓ Hit
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes
✗ Miss
Ivory Coast vs Norway
1-2
Match Result
Away · 42%
✓ Hit
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
✓ Hit
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes
✓ Hit
Netherlands vs Morocco
1-1
Match Result
Home · 43%
✗ Miss
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
✗ Miss
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes
✓ Hit
Germany vs Paraguay
1-1
Match Result
Home · 70%
✗ Miss
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
✗ Miss
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes
✓ Hit
Brazil vs Japan
2-1
Match Result
Home · 51%
✓ Hit
Over/Under 2.5
Under 2.5
✗ Miss
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes
✓ Hit
South Africa vs Canada
0-1
Match Result
Away · 51%
✓ Hit
Over/Under 2.5
Under 2.5
✓ Hit
Both Teams Score
BTTS: No
✓ Hit
Algeria vs Austria
3-3
Match Result
Home · 44%
✗ Miss
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
✓ Hit
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes
✓ Hit
Jordan vs Argentina
1-3
Match Result
Away · 85%
✓ Hit
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
✓ Hit
Both Teams Score
BTTS: No
✗ Miss
