🌍 International Friendlies · Friendly International
Czech Republic vs Guatemala
Jun 05, 12:00 AM · Sports Illustrated Stadium
⭐ SAFE PREDICTION
Czech Republic Home Win
70%
Predicted score: 2-0
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Most Likely Scores
2-0
11.2%
1-0
9.7%
2-1
9.7%
Pre-match Outlook
Goalence's Pi-Ratings model gives Czech Republic a clear edge against Guatemala in International Friendlies — 70% confidence (SAFE tier) with an expected scoreline of 2-0.
Expected goals lean high — λ 2.30 for Czech Republic, λ 0.87 for Guatemala, summing to 3.16; over 2.5 sits at 61% probability.
Both teams are projected to score (52% BTTS yes), suggesting an open contest where neither defense fully shuts down the opponent.
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Czech Republic vs Guatemala — Czech Republic Home Win: 70%. λ (Home): 2.30 · λ (Away): 0.87.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.