🌍 International Friendlies · Friendly International
Iraq vs Venezuela
Jun 09, 08:00 PM
○ Normal PREDICTION
Venezuela Away Win
51%
Predicted score: 0-1
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Most Likely Scores
0-1
11.1%
1-2
9.6%
0-2
9.0%
Pre-match Outlook
Venezuela enter this International Friendlies fixture with a measured advantage over Iraq (51% confidence, Normal tier) and a projected 0-1 result.
Goal expectation is balanced — λ 1.06 for Iraq, λ 1.63 for Venezuela, total 2.69; the over/under read is over 2.5 at 50%.
In this International Friendlies context, small swings in form or selection can flip the projection — treat the moderate-confidence pick as a starting point rather than a lock.
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Iraq vs Venezuela — Venezuela Away Win: 51%. λ (Home): 1.06 · λ (Away): 1.63.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.