🇳🇱 Dutch Eredivisie · Semi-finals
Ajax vs Groningen
May 21, 04:45 PM · Kras Stadion
⭐ SAFE PREDICTION
Ajax Home Win
56%
Predicted score: 1-0
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Ajax56%
Draw23%
Groningen21%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 (3+)51%
Under 2.5 (0-2)49%
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes47%
BTTS: No53%
Most Likely Scores
1-0
12.6%
2-0
12.1%
2-1
9.7%
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Ajax vs Groningen — Ajax Home Win: 56%. λ (Home): 1.92 · λ (Away): 0.81.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.