🇳🇱 Dutch Eredivisie · Final
Ajax vs Utrecht
May 24, 04:00 PM · Johan Cruijff Arena
○ Normal PREDICTION
Ajax Home Win
49%
Predicted score: 1-0
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Ajax49%
Draw25%
Utrecht27%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 (3+)52%
Under 2.5 (0-2)48%
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes55%
BTTS: No45%
Most Likely Scores
1-0
10.2%
2-1
9.5%
2-0
8.3%
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Ajax vs Utrecht — Ajax Home Win: 49%. λ (Home): 1.62 · λ (Away): 1.14.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.