🇳🇱 Dutch Eredivisie · Semi-finals
Utrecht vs Heerenveen
May 21, 07:00 PM · Stadion Galgenwaard
○ Normal PREDICTION
Utrecht Home Win
53%
Predicted score: 1-0
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Utrecht53%
Draw25%
Heerenveen22%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 (3+)47%
Under 2.5 (0-2)53%
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes49%
BTTS: No51%
Most Likely Scores
1-0
12.6%
2-0
10.1%
2-1
9.5%
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Utrecht vs Heerenveen — Utrecht Home Win: 53%. λ (Home): 1.60 · λ (Away): 0.94.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.