goalence

🏴 English League One · Final

Bolton vs Stockport County

May 24, 12:00 PM · Wembley Stadium

Normal PREDICTION

Bolton Home Win

39%

Predicted score: 2-1

Outcome Probabilities

1X2 — Match Result

Bolton39%
Draw26%
Stockport County35%

Over/Under 2.5

Over 2.5 (3+)67%
Under 2.5 (0-2)33%

Both Teams Score

BTTS: Yes67%
BTTS: No33%

Most Likely Scores

2-1

8.6%

1-0

5.9%

2-0

5.4%

How the Model Works

We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.

Bolton vs Stockport CountyBolton Home Win: 39%. λ (Home): 1.82 · λ (Away): 1.61.

Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.