🏴 English League One · Final
Bolton vs Stockport County
May 24, 12:00 PM · Wembley Stadium
○ Normal PREDICTION
Bolton Home Win
39%
Predicted score: 2-1
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Bolton39%
Draw26%
Stockport County35%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 (3+)67%
Under 2.5 (0-2)33%
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes67%
BTTS: No33%
Most Likely Scores
2-1
8.6%
1-0
5.9%
2-0
5.4%
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Bolton vs Stockport County — Bolton Home Win: 39%. λ (Home): 1.82 · λ (Away): 1.61.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.