🇪🇸 La Liga · Regular Season - 38
Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano
May 23, 07:00 PM · Estadio Mendizorrotza
○ Normal PREDICTION
Alaves Home Win
37%
Predicted score: 1-0
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Alaves37%
Draw29%
Rayo Vallecano34%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 (3+)37%
Under 2.5 (0-2)63%
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes44%
BTTS: No56%
Most Likely Scores
1-0
12.5%
2-1
7.5%
2-0
7.0%
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano — Alaves Home Win: 37%. λ (Home): 1.12 · λ (Away): 1.07.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.