🇪🇸 La Liga · Regular Season - 38
Espanyol vs Real Sociedad
May 23, 07:00 PM · RCDE Stadium
○ Normal PREDICTION
Real Sociedad Away Win
41%
Predicted score: 1-2
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Espanyol34%
Draw25%
Real Sociedad41%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 (3+)55%
Under 2.5 (0-2)45%
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes58%
BTTS: No42%
Most Likely Scores
1-2
8.8%
0-1
8.4%
0-2
6.4%
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Espanyol vs Real Sociedad — Real Sociedad Away Win: 41%. λ (Home): 1.37 · λ (Away): 1.52.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.