goalence

🇪🇸 La Liga · Regular Season - 38

Espanyol vs Real Sociedad

May 23, 07:00 PM · RCDE Stadium

Normal PREDICTION

Real Sociedad Away Win

41%

Predicted score: 1-2

Outcome Probabilities

1X2 — Match Result

Espanyol34%
Draw25%
Real Sociedad41%

Over/Under 2.5

Over 2.5 (3+)55%
Under 2.5 (0-2)45%

Both Teams Score

BTTS: Yes58%
BTTS: No42%

Most Likely Scores

1-2

8.8%

0-1

8.4%

0-2

6.4%

How the Model Works

We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.

Espanyol vs Real SociedadReal Sociedad Away Win: 41%. λ (Home): 1.37 · λ (Away): 1.52.

Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.