🇪🇸 La Liga · Regular Season - 38
Real Madrid vs Athletic Club
May 23, 07:00 PM · Estadio Santiago Bernabéu
🔥 ELITE PREDICTION
Real Madrid Home Win
79%
Predicted score: 2-0
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Real Madrid79%
Draw14%
Athletic Club6%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 (3+)58%
Under 2.5 (0-2)42%
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes39%
BTTS: No61%
Most Likely Scores
2-0
14.9%
3-0
12.3%
1-0
12.1%
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Real Madrid vs Athletic Club — Real Madrid Home Win: 79%. λ (Home): 2.46 · λ (Away): 0.55.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.