goalence

🏴 Premier League · Regular Season - 38

Crystal Palace vs Arsenal

May 24, 03:00 PM · Selhurst Park

🔥 ELITE PREDICTION

Arsenal Away Win

71%

Predicted score: 0-1

Outcome Probabilities

1X2 — Match Result

Crystal Palace6%
Draw23%
Arsenal71%

Over/Under 2.5

Over 2.5 (3+)28%
Under 2.5 (0-2)72%

Both Teams Score

BTTS: Yes18%
BTTS: No82%

Most Likely Scores

0-1

25.2%

0-2

19.7%

0-3

10.3%

How the Model Works

We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.

Crystal Palace vs ArsenalArsenal Away Win: 71%. λ (Home): 0.26 · λ (Away): 1.57.

Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.