🏴 Premier League · Regular Season - 38
Crystal Palace vs Arsenal
May 24, 03:00 PM · Selhurst Park
🔥 ELITE PREDICTION
Arsenal Away Win
71%
Predicted score: 0-1
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Crystal Palace6%
Draw23%
Arsenal71%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 (3+)28%
Under 2.5 (0-2)72%
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes18%
BTTS: No82%
Most Likely Scores
0-1
25.2%
0-2
19.7%
0-3
10.3%
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Crystal Palace vs Arsenal — Arsenal Away Win: 71%. λ (Home): 0.26 · λ (Away): 1.57.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.