🏴 Premier League · Regular Season - 38
Sunderland vs Chelsea
May 24, 03:00 PM · Stadium of Light
○ Normal PREDICTION
Sunderland Home Win
40%
Predicted score: 1-0
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Sunderland40%
Draw25%
Chelsea34%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 (3+)52%
Under 2.5 (0-2)48%
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes56%
BTTS: No44%
Most Likely Scores
1-0
9.1%
2-1
8.7%
2-0
6.6%
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Sunderland vs Chelsea — Sunderland Home Win: 40%. λ (Home): 1.44 · λ (Away): 1.32.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.