🇹🇷 Turkish 1st League · Final
Esenler Erokspor vs Çorum FK
May 24, 04:00 PM · Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium
○ Normal PREDICTION
Esenler Erokspor Home Win
45%
Predicted score: 1-0
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Esenler Erokspor45%
Draw26%
Çorum FK29%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 (3+)44%
Under 2.5 (0-2)56%
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes48%
BTTS: No52%
Most Likely Scores
1-0
12.4%
2-1
9.0%
2-0
8.8%
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Esenler Erokspor vs Çorum FK — Esenler Erokspor Home Win: 45%. λ (Home): 1.42 · λ (Away): 1.02.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.