Mundial 2026
Mundial 2026, Pronóstico Goalence
Nuestro modelo Pi-Ratings simuló el torneo cientos de millones de veces. Aquí están las probabilidades previas de cada selección, y cómo cambian tras cada ronda.
Campeón
Las columnas de la derecha se rellenan según avanza el torneo: cuando terminan los partidos de una ronda, re-ejecutamos el modelo con los resultados reales y publicamos las nuevas probabilidades. Las selecciones eliminadas quedan en 0%.
Pre = previo · J1/J2/J3 = tras jornada de grupos 1/2/3 · R32/R16 = tras dieciseisavos/octavos · CF/SF = tras cuartos/semifinales.
| # | Selección | Pre | J1 | J2 | J3 | R32 | R16 | CF | SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇪🇸España | 9.7% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 11.4% | 19.9% | 27.4% | 54.0% |
| 2 | 🇦🇷Argentina | 11.4% | 14.5% | 16.5% | 18.2% | 18.8% | 24.4% | 33.8% | 46.0% |
| 3 | 🇫🇷Franciaout | 8.5% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 12.7% | 15.2% | 22.4% | 0% |
| 4 | 🇧🇷Brasilout | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 11.7% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 5 | 🏴Inglaterraout | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 11.2% | 16.3% | 0% |
| 6 | 🇵🇹Portugalout | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 7.7% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 7 | 🇨🇴Colombiaout | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 8 | 🇩🇪Alemaniaout | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 9 | 🇳🇱Países Bajosout | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 10 | 🇧🇪Bélgicaout | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 0% | 0% |
| 11 | 🇯🇵Japónout | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 12 | 🇲🇦Marruecosout | 3.6% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 0% | 0% |
| 13 | 🇨🇭Suizaout | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 6.0% | 0% | 0% |
| 14 | 🇭🇷Croaciaout | 2.7% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 15 | 🇲🇽Méxicoout | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 16 | 🇳🇴Noruegaout | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 5.4% | 0% | 0% |
| 17 | 🇺🇾Uruguayout | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 18 | 🇸🇳Senegalout | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 19 | 🇪🇨Ecuadorout | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 20 | 🇦🇹Austriaout | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 21 | 🇮🇷Iránout | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 22 | 🇺🇸Estados Unidosout | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 23 | 🇦🇺Australiaout | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 24 | 🇹🇷Türkiyeout | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 25 | 🇩🇿Argeliaout | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 26 | 🇰🇷Corea del Surout | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 27 | 🇨🇦Canadáout | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 28 | 🇸🇪Sueciaout | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 29 | 🇪🇬Egiptoout | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 30 | 🇵🇾Paraguayout | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 31 | 🏴Escociaout | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 32 | 🇨🇿Chequiaout | 0.2% | 0.1% | <0.1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 33 | 🇨🇮Costa de Marfilout | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 34 | 🇹🇳Túnezout | 0.2% | <0.1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 35 | 🇬🇭Ghanaout | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 36 | 🇿🇦Sudáfricaout | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 37 | 🇸🇦Arabia Sauditaout | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 38 | 🇧🇦Bosnia y Herzegovinaout | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 39 | 🇳🇿Nueva Zelandaout | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 40 | 🇵🇦Panamáout | <0.1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 41 | 🇺🇿Uzbekistánout | <0.1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 42 | 🇨🇩RD del Congoout | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 43 | 🇨🇻Cabo Verdeout | 0% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 44 | 🇯🇴Jordaniaout | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 45 | 🇮🇶Irakout | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 46 | 🇨🇼Curazaoout | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 47 | 🇶🇦Catarout | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 48 | 🇭🇹Haitíout | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Cuadro más probable
La ruta más probable de nuestro modelo, de la fase de grupos a la final, con cada marcador. La mitad son a cara o cruz.
Modelo puro, solo nuestras probabilidades, nada externo mezclado. Seguimiento prospectivo: las cifras se registran antes de cada ronda.