🇩🇪 Bundesliga · Regular Season - 1
SV Elversberg vs Bayer Leverkusen
Aug 29, 01:30 PM · Waldstadion Kaiserlinde
✓ Recorded before kickoff
Bayer Leverkusen Away Win
71%
Predicted score: 0-1
1Outcome Probabilities
Match ResultMatch Result (1X2)The traditional outcome market: Home win (1), Draw (X), or Away win (2). Goalence outputs three probabilities summing to 100% for every fixture.→
Bayer Leverkusen Away Win
71%
Over/Under 2.5Over/Under 2.5A prediction market that resolves Over if the total goals in the match are 3 or more, Under if 2 or fewer. Computed from Goalence's two lambdas: P(home_goals + away_goals ≥ 3).→
Under 2.5 2.5
58%
Both Teams ScoreBTTS — Both Teams To ScoreA prediction market that resolves Yes if both teams score at least one goal in the match, No otherwise. Goalence outputs a BTTS probability for every fixture by integrating the Poisson distribution over scorelines.→
BTTS: Yes
51%
Confidence: ELITE.
2Most Likely Scores
Pre-match Outlook
Goalence's Pi-Ratings model gives Bayer Leverkusen a clear edge against SV Elversberg in Bundesliga — 71% confidence (ELITE tier) with an expected scoreline of 0-1.
Both teams are projected to score (51% BTTS yes), suggesting an open contest where neither defense fully shuts down the opponent.
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
SV Elversberg vs Bayer Leverkusen — Bayer Leverkusen Away Win: 71%.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.