2026-27 SEASON
Championship Forecast — 2026-27
Our Pi-Ratings model plays out the rest of every league's season tens of thousands of times. Below is each team's championship rate, and how it changes month to month.
UEFA Club Competitions
The 36-team league phase, played out to the final tens of thousands of times. The first three columns are the league-phase finish: the top eight go straight to the round of 16, ninth to twenty-fourth into the knockout play-off, the rest are out. Then come the champion columns — one per checkpoint, a new dated one after every matchday, oldest first and newest last.
🏆UEFA Champions League
36 teams · 4 champion checkpoints
| # | Team | Top 8 | 9th–24th | Out | Aug 27Draw | Sep 10MD1 | Oct 14MD2 | Oct 21MD3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal1 | 71.0% | 28.5% | 0.5% | 13.2% | 12.0% | 12.6% | 12.6% |
| 2 | Paris Saint-Germain1 | 79.1% | 20.7% | 0.2% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 9.3%▲0.9 |
| 3 | Bayern Munich1 | 34.2% | 57.7% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.2% |
| 4 | Barcelona1 | 52.6% | 44.3% | 3.1% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 7.9%▼0.9 |
| 5 | Real Madrid1 | 80.0% | 19.8% | 0.2% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.8%▲0.7 |
| 6 | Liverpool1 | 74.9% | 24.7% | 0.4% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.4%▲0.4 |
| 7 | Manchester City1 | 38.6% | 55.0% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 7.1%▲0.4 |
| 8 | Aston Villa2 | 68.8% | 30.8% | 0.5% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.3%▲1.0 |
| 9 | Inter Milan1 | 11.1% | 60.4% | 28.6% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 3.0%▲0.4 |
| 10 | Sporting CP2 | 28.3% | 62.0% | 9.7% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.0%▼1.0 |
| 11 | Borussia Dortmund2 | 27.6% | 64.2% | 8.2% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.0%▲0.4 |
| 12 | Manchester United2 | 10.2% | 60.4% | 29.4% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.8%▼1.0 |
| 13 | Atlético Madrid1 | 13.7% | 65.0% | 21.3% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.4%▼0.3 |
| 14 | Real Betis2 | 50.3% | 47.8% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.4%▲0.4 |
| 15 | Club Brugge2 | 30.2% | 60.4% | 9.4% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.2%▲0.3 |
| 16 | Roma2 | 9.1% | 61.0% | 30.0% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.7%▲0.2 |
| 17 | VfB Stuttgart4 | 33.0% | 59.9% | 7.1% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.7%▼0.3 |
| 18 | PSV Eindhoven2 | 12.6% | 61.4% | 26.0% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.6%▲0.4 |
| 19 | Como4 | 23.3% | 64.5% | 12.1% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.5%▲0.3 |
| 20 | Bodø/Glimt3 | 7.3% | 60.6% | 32.1% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.1% |
| 21 | Villarreal3 | 7.4% | 57.8% | 34.8% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.1%▼0.4 |
| 22 | Napoli3 | 6.9% | 57.2% | 35.9% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.1%▲0.1 |
| 23 | RB Leipzig3 | 5.9% | 54.3% | 39.8% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.0%▼0.5 |
| 24 | Lens4 | 4.9% | 49.8% | 45.3% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.7%▼0.4 |
| 25 | Galatasaray3 | 4.7% | 50.0% | 45.3% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.7%▲0.3 |
| 26 | Porto2 | 0.7% | 28.1% | 71.3% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.6%▼0.5 |
| 27 | Feyenoord3 | 3.9% | 46.3% | 49.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.5%▼0.2 |
| 28 | Fenerbahçe3 | 1.7% | 36.9% | 61.4% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3%▼0.3 |
| 29 | AEK Athens4 | 2.7% | 42.4% | 54.9% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.3%▼0.1 |
| 30 | Lille3 | 0.2% | 15.3% | 84.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2%▼0.2 |
| 31 | Viking4 | 0.6% | 28.1% | 71.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 32 | Slavia Prague4 | 0.3% | 18.9% | 80.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 33 | LASK4 | 1.7% | 38.1% | 60.3% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 34 | Shakhtar Donetsk3 | 2.3% | 42.1% | 55.6% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 35 | Slovan Bratislava4 | <0.1% | 7.7% | 92.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 36 | Sabah4 | 0.4% | 18.0% | 81.6% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Champion odds. Each column is a checkpoint struck on the date shown and never rewritten afterwards; the newest checkpoint is the last column.
🏆UEFA Europa League
36 teams · 4 champion checkpoints
| # | Team | Top 8 | 9th–24th | Out | Aug 28Draw | Sep 17MD1 | Oct 1MD2 | Oct 22MD3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bournemouth3 | 89.3% | 10.7% | <0.1% | 12.9% | 13.3% | 13.8% | 15.3%▲1.5 |
| 2 | Benfica1 | 90.1% | 9.8% | <0.1% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 11.0% | 11.9%▲0.9 |
| 3 | Bayer Leverkusen1 | 82.3% | 17.6% | <0.1% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 10.7%▲1.2 |
| 4 | Juventus1 | 61.2% | 38.0% | 0.8% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 8.9%▼0.6 |
| 5 | Crystal Palace3 | 28.9% | 62.1% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.8%▼1.2 |
| 6 | Sunderland3 | 58.1% | 40.5% | 1.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.1%▼0.9 |
| 7 | Union Saint-Gilloise2 | 53.3% | 44.4% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.1%▲0.4 |
| 8 | Lyon1 | 33.5% | 61.0% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.6%▼0.8 |
| 9 | Milan1 | 12.7% | 68.2% | 19.1% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.1%▼0.7 |
| 10 | Olympiacos1 | 64.3% | 35.3% | 0.4% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% |
| 11 | Rennes2 | 30.3% | 62.7% | 7.1% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.7%▼0.2 |
| 12 | Ferencváros2 | 56.0% | 43.2% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.2%▲0.1 |
| 13 | Real Sociedad1 | 14.7% | 68.2% | 17.2% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.2%▲0.5 |
| 14 | Celta Vigo3 | 5.7% | 62.3% | 32.0% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.9%▲0.7 |
| 15 | TSG Hoffenheim4 | 6.7% | 60.8% | 32.5% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 1.8%▲0.6 |
| 16 | Beşiktaş4 | 27.2% | 66.3% | 6.6% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.8%▼0.1 |
| 17 | AZ1 | 25.7% | 66.3% | 8.0% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.6%▲0.5 |
| 18 | Marseille1 | 0.5% | 32.2% | 67.3% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.9%▼0.5 |
| 19 | Sparta Prague2 | 8.8% | 64.3% | 26.9% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.9%▼0.3 |
| 20 | Dinamo Zagreb2 | 4.9% | 58.7% | 36.4% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 0.9%▼0.6 |
| 21 | NEC4 | 9.4% | 63.9% | 26.8% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.8%▲0.3 |
| 22 | Anderlecht2 | 5.3% | 59.7% | 34.9% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.7%▲0.3 |
| 23 | Red Bull Salzburg2 | 5.6% | 59.3% | 35.1% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.6%▼0.2 |
| 24 | Omonia3 | 11.4% | 70.2% | 18.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% |
| 25 | Sturm Graz3 | 5.0% | 59.1% | 36.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4%▲0.1 |
| 26 | Lech Poznań3 | 0.8% | 31.0% | 68.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.4%▼0.2 |
| 27 | Celtic2 | 0.4% | 25.4% | 74.1% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.3%▼0.3 |
| 28 | Jagiellonia Białystok3 | 1.5% | 39.9% | 58.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3%▼0.2 |
| 29 | Levski Sofia4 | 3.0% | 57.6% | 39.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 0.2%▲0.1 |
| 30 | Viktoria Plzeň2 | 0.1% | 16.4% | 83.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2%▼0.2 |
| 31 | Celje3 | 0.5% | 27.8% | 71.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 32 | Hapoel Be'er Sheva4 | 0.2% | 19.4% | 80.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| 33 | Torreense4 | 1.6% | 40.1% | 58.4% | <0.1% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 34 | OFI4 | 0.9% | 35.7% | 63.4% | <0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| 35 | Ararat-Armenia4 | <0.1% | 13.2% | 86.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 36 | Lillestrøm4 | <0.1% | 9.0% | 91.0% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Champion odds. Each column is a checkpoint struck on the date shown and never rewritten afterwards; the newest checkpoint is the last column.
🏆UEFA Conference League
36 teams · 3 champion checkpoints
| # | Team | Top 8 | 9th–24th | Out | Aug 28Draw | Oct 15MD1 | Nov 5MD2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brighton & Hove Albion2 | 55.0% | 42.6% | 2.4% | 18.0% | 19.2% | 18.8%▼0.4 |
| 2 | Monaco1 | 73.6% | 25.9% | 0.5% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 9.0%▲1.1 |
| 3 | Atalanta1 | 41.3% | 51.8% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 8.6%▼1.5 |
| 4 | SC Freiburg1 | 28.2% | 59.3% | 12.6% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.8%▼1.1 |
| 5 | Braga1 | 30.6% | 62.3% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.8%▲0.6 |
| 6 | Copenhagen1 | 45.0% | 51.4% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 4.6%▲0.4 |
| 7 | Midtjylland2 | 10.1% | 62.2% | 27.8% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 4.5%▼1.3 |
| 8 | Twente3 | 57.7% | 40.7% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.2%▲0.6 |
| 9 | Sint-Truiden4 | 52.4% | 44.7% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.6%▲0.8 |
| 10 | Panathinaikos2 | 46.8% | 50.4% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.5%▲1.2 |
| 11 | Trabzonspor4 | 57.3% | 40.5% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.3%▲0.6 |
| 12 | Brann4 | 48.4% | 48.5% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.3%▲0.9 |
| 13 | Ajax1 | 16.9% | 59.6% | 23.5% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.9%▲1.0 |
| 14 | Getafe3 | 6.5% | 61.7% | 31.8% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 2.8%▼1.3 |
| 15 | Nordsjælland5 | 10.3% | 62.9% | 26.8% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 2.6%▼0.8 |
| 16 | Lugano3 | 57.2% | 40.7% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.4%▲0.7 |
| 17 | Red Star Belgrade2 | 9.8% | 63.9% | 26.3% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.4%▼0.6 |
| 18 | Mjällby AIF6 | 31.9% | 60.3% | 7.8% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.3%▼0.3 |
| 19 | Gent2 | 17.9% | 61.1% | 21.0% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.6%▼0.2 |
| 20 | Hajduk Split5 | 45.9% | 50.2% | 3.9% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.4%▲0.5 |
| 21 | Universitatea Craiova4 | 23.4% | 66.6% | 10.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.3%▲0.4 |
| 22 | Pafos2 | 3.4% | 46.6% | 50.0% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 1.1%▼0.5 |
| 23 | AGF5 | 4.1% | 50.4% | 45.5% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.0%▼0.4 |
| 24 | Jablonec5 | 4.3% | 52.0% | 43.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| 25 | Heart of Midlothian4 | 3.3% | 47.7% | 49.0% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.6%▼0.2 |
| 26 | Thun6 | 1.9% | 34.5% | 63.6% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.3%▼0.2 |
| 27 | Riga5 | 5.4% | 48.0% | 46.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 28 | Borac Banja Luka3 | 5.7% | 51.2% | 43.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 29 | CSKA Sofia6 | 1.6% | 35.2% | 63.2% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 30 | Egnatia6 | 2.8% | 49.5% | 47.8% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 31 | Kairat4 | 0.7% | 23.6% | 75.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| 32 | Inter Club d'Escaldes5 | 0.1% | 10.6% | 89.3% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 33 | KuPS3 | 0.1% | 10.8% | 89.1% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 34 | Kauno Žalgiris6 | 0.4% | 14.9% | 84.7% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| 35 | Lincoln Red Imps3 | <0.1% | 9.1% | 90.8% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0% |
| 36 | Iberia 19996 | <0.1% | 8.6% | 91.4% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Champion odds. Each column is a checkpoint struck on the date shown and never rewritten afterwards; the newest checkpoint is the last column.
🏴Premier League
5 rounds played
| Team | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 21.9% | 21.9% | 25.3% | 55.4% |
| Arsenal | 56.2% | 56.2% | 62.7% | 38.4% |
| Brighton | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.1% |
| Liverpool | 2.8% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 1.8% |
| Leeds | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| Brentford | 2.4% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| Chelsea | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 0.5% |
| Newcastle | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Everton | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Bournemouth | 2.8% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Manchester United | 2.6% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Crystal Palace | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Aston Villa | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Coventry | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Fulham | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Hull City | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ipswich | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sunderland | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tottenham | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
🇪🇸La Liga
6 rounds played
| Team | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 58.2% | 58.2% | 60.6% | 97.0% |
| Real Madrid | 33.6% | 33.6% | 34.4% | 2.9% |
| Atletico Madrid | 7.1% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 0.1% |
| Real Betis | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Alaves | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Athletic Club | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Celta Vigo | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Deportivo La Coruna* | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elche | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Espanyol | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Getafe | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Levante | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Malaga* | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Osasuna | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Racing Santander* | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rayo Vallecano | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Real Sociedad | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sevilla | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Valencia | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Villarreal | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
* Promoted this season or limited history in this league — the model gives it a cautious starting rating based on the league's own lower-percentile teams.
🇮🇹Serie A
5 rounds played
| Team | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma | 7.2% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 38.9% |
| Inter | 22.1% | 22.1% | 23.6% | 33.0% |
| Como | 20.0% | 20.0% | 17.2% | 18.0% |
| Juventus | 42.9% | 42.9% | 41.9% | 8.3% |
| AC Milan | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 1.0% |
| Lazio | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| Atalanta | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| Napoli | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Udinese | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bologna | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cagliari | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Fiorentina | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Frosinone | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Genoa | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lecce | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Monza | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Parma | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sassuolo | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Torino | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Venezia | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
🇩🇪Bundesliga
4 rounds played
| Team | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern München | 87.6% | 87.6% | 90.3% | 83.4% |
| Borussia Dortmund | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 11.0% |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 6.1% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 3.4% |
| VfB Stuttgart | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% |
| SC Freiburg | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% |
| FSV Mainz 05 | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| RB Leipzig | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| FC Augsburg | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| 1. FC Köln | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| FC Schalke 04 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hamburger SV | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| SC Paderborn 07 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| SV Elversberg | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Union Berlin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Werder Bremen | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
🇫🇷Ligue 1
5 rounds played
| Team | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain | 97.2% | 97.6% | 96.0% | 69.3% |
| Monaco | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 18.5% |
| Lille | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 5.7% |
| Lyon | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 3.4% |
| Rennes | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.5% |
| Lens | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Paris FC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| Strasbourg | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| Marseille | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Toulouse | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lorient | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Angers | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Auxerre | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Estac Troyes | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Le Havre | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Le Mans* | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nice | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stade Brestois 29 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
* Promoted this season or limited history in this league — the model gives it a cautious starting rating based on the league's own lower-percentile teams.
🇹🇷Turkish Super League
6 rounds played
| Team | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray | 46.4% | 46.0% | 51.0% | 50.3% |
| Beşiktaş | 7.8% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 24.3% |
| Fenerbahçe | 39.7% | 39.3% | 30.0% | 23.0% |
| Amed | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.1% |
| Trabzonspor | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.9% |
| Başakşehir | 2.9% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Erzurumspor FK | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.9% | 0.1% |
| Çorum FK | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Kocaelispor | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alanyaspor | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rizespor | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Gaziantep FK | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kasımpaşa | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eyüpspor | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Göztepe | 2.0% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Konyaspor | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samsunspor | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
🇵🇹Portuguese Primeira Liga
6 rounds played
| Team | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica | 26.5% | 26.4% | 23.4% | 63.5% |
| FC Porto | 5.4% | 5.2% | 10.5% | 19.9% |
| Sporting CP | 67.1% | 67.5% | 65.4% | 16.6% |
| SC Braga | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Santa Clara | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Academico Viseu* | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alverca | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arouca | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Casa Pia | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Estoril | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Estrela | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Famalicao | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| GIL Vicente | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maritimo | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Moreirense | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nacional | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rio Ave | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vitória SC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
* Promoted this season or limited history in this league — the model gives it a cautious starting rating based on the league's own lower-percentile teams.
🇳🇱Dutch Eredivisie
7 rounds played
| Team | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven | 86.6% | 86.6% | 88.1% | 80.4% |
| AZ Alkmaar | 1.7% | 1.5% | 3.5% | 12.3% |
| Ajax | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.1% |
| Feyenoord | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 2.1% |
| Twente | 3.6% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 2.0% |
| Excelsior | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Groningen | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| ADO Den Haag | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cambuur | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Fortuna Sittard | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| GO Ahead Eagles | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Heerenveen | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| NEC Nijmegen | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| PEC Zwolle | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sparta Rotterdam | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Telstar | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Utrecht | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Willem II | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
🏴Scottish Premiership
7 rounds played
| Team | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic | 54.5% | 56.5% | 70.2% | 79.0% |
| Rangers | 22.9% | 19.9% | 12.5% | 19.2% |
| Heart Of Midlothian | 13.5% | 14.0% | 9.4% | 1.3% |
| Motherwell | 5.3% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 0.4% |
| Hibernian | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 0.0% |
| Aberdeen | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dundee | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dundee Utd | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Falkirk | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kilmarnock | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| ST Johnstone | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| ST Mirren | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
🇨🇭Swiss Super League
9 rounds played
| Team | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Lugano | 19.3% | 22.5% | 44.3% | 86.8% |
| BSC Young Boys | 16.8% | 23.4% | 19.7% | 7.7% |
| FC Sion | 36.4% | 28.5% | 24.8% | 5.3% |
| FC ST. Gallen | 9.8% | 11.8% | 6.3% | 0.2% |
| FC Basel 1893 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| FC Luzern | 4.5% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| FC Thun | 3.3% | 5.5% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| FC Vaduz | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| FC Zurich | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grasshoppers | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lausanne | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Servette FC | 9.9% | 5.5% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
🇦🇹Austrian Bundesliga
7 rounds played
| Team | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lask Linz | 57.4% | 62.5% | 76.3% | 40.2% |
| Red Bull Salzburg | 10.7% | 9.2% | 13.6% | 35.9% |
| Rapid Vienna | 0.2% | 0.3% | 1.6% | 22.9% |
| Sturm Graz | 25.5% | 23.1% | 7.7% | 1.0% |
| Austria Lustenau | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Austria Vienna | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Grazer AK | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Ried | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| SCR Altach | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| TSV Hartberg | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| WSG Wattens | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wolfsberger AC | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
🇬🇷Greek Super League
5 rounds played
| Team | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens FC | 57.1% | 56.2% | 42.4% | 65.1% |
| Olympiakos Piraeus | 22.2% | 23.2% | 29.0% | 15.9% |
| PAOK | 17.0% | 17.0% | 23.9% | 10.9% |
| Panathinaikos | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 8.1% |
| OFI | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aris Thessalonikis | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Asteras Tripolis | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Atromitos | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Iraklis 1908* | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kalamata* | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kifisia | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Levadiakos | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Panetolikos | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Volos NFC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
* Promoted this season or limited history in this league — the model gives it a cautious starting rating based on the league's own lower-percentile teams.
🇺🇦Ukrainian Premier League
4 rounds played
| Team | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shakhtar Donetsk | 80.6% | 82.1% | 84.0% | 53.2% |
| Polessya | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 36.0% |
| FC Kharkiv | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 4.3% |
| Dynamo Kyiv | 9.0% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 3.6% |
| Karpaty | 1.1% | 0.4% | 1.7% | 3.0% |
| LNZ Cherkasy | 3.7% | 3.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Bukovyna* | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chornomorets | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kolos Kovalivka | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kryvbas KR | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kudrivka | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Livyi Bereh | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Obolon'-Brovar | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Veres Rivne | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zorya Luhansk | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
* Promoted this season or limited history in this league — the model gives it a cautious starting rating based on the league's own lower-percentile teams.
🇷🇺Russian Premier League
9 rounds played
| Team | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Krasnodar | 41.5% | 44.1% | 68.8% | 56.1% |
| Zenit | 53.1% | 51.9% | 28.8% | 31.6% |
| Spartak Moscow | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 7.0% |
| Dynamo | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 4.1% |
| CSKA Moscow | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 1.1% |
| Baltika | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Rubin | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Akhmat | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Akron | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dinamo Makhachkala | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| FC Orenburg | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| FC Rostov | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Fakel | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Krylia Sovetov | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lokomotiv | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rodina Moskva | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
🇹🇷Turkish 1st League
8 rounds played
| Team | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Oct 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keçiörengücü | 19.6% | 19.6% | 24.8% | 40.2% |
| Kayserispor | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.9% | 26.9% |
| Bursaspor | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 11.9% |
| Bandırmaspor | 8.0% | 8.3% | 15.3% | 9.5% |
| Iğdır FK | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 7.2% |
| Sarıyer | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 1.5% |
| Pendikspor | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.0% |
| Batman Petrolspor* | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| Fatih Karagümrük | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Bodrum FK | 15.1% | 15.4% | 11.4% | 0.4% |
| Esenler Erokspor | 52.7% | 52.5% | 39.9% | 0.3% |
| Muğlaspor* | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Mardin 1969* | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Manisa F.K. | 0.2% | 0.2% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| İstanbulspor | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Ümraniyespor | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Antalyaspor | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Boluspor | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sivasspor | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vanspor FK | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
* Promoted this season or limited history in this league — the model gives it a cautious starting rating based on the league's own lower-percentile teams.
A pure model, our own probabilities only, nothing blended in from outside. Home advantage applies to the actual home team in every match — unlike the World Cup, there are no neutral venues.