2026-27 SEASON
Championship Forecast — 2026-27
Our Pi-Ratings model plays out the rest of every league's season tens of thousands of times. Below is each team's championship rate, and how it changes month to month.
UEFA Club Competitions
The 36-team league phase, played out to the final tens of thousands of times. The first three columns are the league-phase finish: the top eight go straight to the round of 16, ninth to twenty-fourth into the knockout play-off, the rest are out. Then come the champion columns — one per checkpoint, a new dated one after every matchday, oldest first and newest last.
🏆UEFA Champions League
36 teams · 1 champion checkpoint
| # | Team | Top 8 | 9th–24th | Out | Aug 27Draw |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal1 | 50.8% | 41.3% | 7.9% | 13.2% |
| 2 | Paris Saint-Germain1 | 39.8% | 45.4% | 14.8% | 7.8% |
| 3 | Bayern Munich1 | 43.0% | 43.2% | 13.8% | 7.7% |
| 4 | Manchester City1 | 33.6% | 47.8% | 18.6% | 7.0% |
| 5 | Barcelona1 | 38.3% | 45.2% | 16.6% | 6.3% |
| 6 | Liverpool1 | 39.4% | 45.6% | 15.0% | 5.7% |
| 7 | Real Madrid1 | 37.1% | 47.0% | 15.9% | 5.6% |
| 8 | Manchester United2 | 31.2% | 48.5% | 20.3% | 4.8% |
| 9 | Aston Villa2 | 29.8% | 48.6% | 21.6% | 4.7% |
| 10 | Inter Milan1 | 34.7% | 47.2% | 18.1% | 4.3% |
| 11 | Sporting CP2 | 31.2% | 47.9% | 20.9% | 3.5% |
| 12 | Borussia Dortmund2 | 23.2% | 50.4% | 26.4% | 2.6% |
| 13 | Atlético Madrid1 | 21.1% | 48.3% | 30.6% | 2.5% |
| 14 | Roma2 | 22.4% | 49.5% | 28.2% | 2.3% |
| 15 | PSV Eindhoven2 | 26.3% | 46.7% | 27.0% | 2.2% |
| 16 | Porto2 | 23.9% | 49.5% | 26.5% | 2.1% |
| 17 | Club Brugge2 | 23.0% | 47.7% | 29.3% | 1.8% |
| 18 | RB Leipzig3 | 20.3% | 46.7% | 33.1% | 1.6% |
| 19 | Napoli3 | 22.3% | 50.4% | 27.3% | 1.6% |
| 20 | Bodø/Glimt3 | 19.9% | 50.9% | 29.3% | 1.6% |
| 21 | VfB Stuttgart4 | 22.3% | 47.7% | 30.0% | 1.4% |
| 22 | Real Betis2 | 15.0% | 47.3% | 37.6% | 1.3% |
| 23 | Lens4 | 17.1% | 46.3% | 36.6% | 1.2% |
| 24 | Villarreal3 | 14.1% | 45.5% | 40.4% | 1.1% |
| 25 | Lille3 | 13.3% | 48.3% | 38.4% | 1.1% |
| 26 | Fenerbahçe3 | 18.0% | 47.5% | 34.5% | 1.0% |
| 27 | Galatasaray3 | 14.4% | 45.4% | 40.2% | 1.0% |
| 28 | Como4 | 14.8% | 45.6% | 39.5% | 1.0% |
| 29 | AEK Athens4 | 13.3% | 45.3% | 41.4% | 0.6% |
| 30 | Feyenoord3 | 10.0% | 40.5% | 49.5% | 0.5% |
| 31 | Slavia Prague4 | 10.7% | 42.9% | 46.4% | 0.4% |
| 32 | Viking4 | 10.2% | 40.1% | 49.8% | 0.4% |
| 33 | LASK4 | 5.0% | 31.8% | 63.2% | 0.1% |
| 34 | Slovan Bratislava4 | 3.9% | 29.3% | 66.8% | <0.1% |
| 35 | Shakhtar Donetsk3 | 5.0% | 29.8% | 65.2% | <0.1% |
| 36 | Sabah4 | 1.6% | 18.8% | 79.6% | <0.1% |
Champion odds. Each column is a checkpoint struck on the date shown and never rewritten afterwards; the newest checkpoint is the last column.
🏆UEFA Europa League
36 teams · 1 champion checkpoint
| # | Team | Top 8 | 9th–24th | Out | Aug 28Draw |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bournemouth3 | 55.0% | 37.5% | 7.5% | 12.9% |
| 2 | Benfica1 | 52.7% | 39.4% | 7.9% | 9.7% |
| 3 | Crystal Palace3 | 50.1% | 40.5% | 9.4% | 9.5% |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen1 | 43.3% | 43.6% | 13.1% | 7.8% |
| 5 | Juventus1 | 43.5% | 44.0% | 12.5% | 7.7% |
| 6 | Sunderland3 | 46.5% | 43.3% | 10.2% | 6.2% |
| 7 | Milan1 | 33.5% | 49.0% | 17.5% | 5.6% |
| 8 | Rennes2 | 35.2% | 48.6% | 16.2% | 4.0% |
| 9 | Marseille1 | 30.3% | 49.2% | 20.5% | 3.8% |
| 10 | Union Saint-Gilloise2 | 30.2% | 49.4% | 20.4% | 3.7% |
| 11 | Lyon1 | 25.6% | 50.2% | 24.2% | 3.6% |
| 12 | TSG Hoffenheim4 | 30.8% | 49.1% | 20.1% | 3.6% |
| 13 | Celta Vigo3 | 23.2% | 49.7% | 27.1% | 3.1% |
| 14 | Olympiacos1 | 24.7% | 51.6% | 23.7% | 2.6% |
| 15 | Real Sociedad1 | 23.5% | 49.7% | 26.7% | 2.5% |
| 16 | Celtic2 | 20.4% | 48.2% | 31.4% | 1.4% |
| 17 | Dinamo Zagreb2 | 19.1% | 48.2% | 32.7% | 1.3% |
| 18 | Sparta Prague2 | 18.9% | 49.3% | 31.8% | 1.2% |
| 19 | Viktoria Plzeň2 | 12.3% | 48.4% | 39.4% | 1.1% |
| 20 | Lech Poznań3 | 16.2% | 47.3% | 36.5% | 1.1% |
| 21 | NEC4 | 19.3% | 48.3% | 32.5% | 1.0% |
| 22 | AZ1 | 16.5% | 48.6% | 34.9% | 1.0% |
| 23 | Ferencváros2 | 15.8% | 47.6% | 36.6% | 0.9% |
| 24 | Beşiktaş4 | 10.5% | 41.7% | 47.8% | 0.8% |
| 25 | Anderlecht2 | 12.2% | 45.0% | 42.7% | 0.7% |
| 26 | Celje3 | 15.4% | 45.3% | 39.3% | 0.6% |
| 27 | Jagiellonia Białystok3 | 8.8% | 42.8% | 48.4% | 0.5% |
| 28 | Red Bull Salzburg2 | 10.5% | 42.7% | 46.8% | 0.4% |
| 29 | Omonia3 | 9.0% | 41.8% | 49.2% | 0.4% |
| 30 | Sturm Graz3 | 9.8% | 42.2% | 48.0% | 0.4% |
| 31 | Hapoel Be'er Sheva4 | 7.6% | 41.0% | 51.4% | 0.3% |
| 32 | Ararat-Armenia4 | 10.9% | 42.5% | 46.7% | 0.2% |
| 33 | Levski Sofia4 | 4.8% | 38.2% | 57.0% | 0.1% |
| 34 | Lillestrøm4 | 4.8% | 33.6% | 61.7% | 0.1% |
| 35 | Torreense4 | 4.4% | 31.3% | 64.3% | <0.1% |
| 36 | OFI4 | 4.8% | 31.4% | 63.8% | <0.1% |
Champion odds. Each column is a checkpoint struck on the date shown and never rewritten afterwards; the newest checkpoint is the last column.
🏆UEFA Conference League
36 teams · 1 champion checkpoint
| # | Team | Top 8 | 9th–24th | Out | Aug 28Draw |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brighton & Hove Albion2 | 56.4% | 37.5% | 6.2% | 18.0% |
| 2 | Atalanta1 | 48.8% | 41.4% | 9.8% | 9.2% |
| 3 | Midtjylland2 | 49.1% | 41.2% | 9.8% | 8.1% |
| 4 | SC Freiburg1 | 40.6% | 45.8% | 13.6% | 7.8% |
| 5 | Monaco1 | 39.8% | 47.5% | 12.7% | 7.0% |
| 6 | Braga1 | 44.2% | 44.5% | 11.4% | 6.5% |
| 7 | Getafe3 | 31.6% | 51.4% | 17.0% | 4.6% |
| 8 | Nordsjælland5 | 30.9% | 52.5% | 16.5% | 4.3% |
| 9 | Red Star Belgrade2 | 35.5% | 49.5% | 15.0% | 3.6% |
| 10 | Copenhagen1 | 27.3% | 50.5% | 22.2% | 2.8% |
| 11 | Pafos2 | 22.2% | 51.0% | 26.8% | 2.7% |
| 12 | Sint-Truiden4 | 27.3% | 51.0% | 21.7% | 2.5% |
| 13 | Mjällby AIF6 | 37.3% | 48.0% | 14.6% | 2.5% |
| 14 | Twente3 | 24.8% | 50.7% | 24.5% | 2.4% |
| 15 | Ajax1 | 16.4% | 46.8% | 36.8% | 2.1% |
| 16 | Brann4 | 24.9% | 52.4% | 22.8% | 2.0% |
| 17 | Trabzonspor4 | 23.8% | 49.9% | 26.3% | 2.0% |
| 18 | Panathinaikos2 | 18.8% | 51.8% | 29.4% | 2.0% |
| 19 | Gent2 | 22.2% | 50.8% | 27.1% | 1.8% |
| 20 | AGF5 | 19.3% | 53.8% | 26.9% | 1.6% |
| 21 | Thun6 | 22.0% | 47.8% | 30.2% | 1.3% |
| 22 | Universitatea Craiova4 | 20.9% | 50.9% | 28.1% | 1.3% |
| 23 | Heart of Midlothian4 | 17.8% | 49.1% | 33.1% | 1.1% |
| 24 | Lugano3 | 15.3% | 49.7% | 35.0% | 0.9% |
| 25 | Jablonec5 | 13.0% | 48.3% | 38.7% | 0.7% |
| 26 | Hajduk Split5 | 13.8% | 47.3% | 38.9% | 0.4% |
| 27 | Riga5 | 11.2% | 43.8% | 44.9% | 0.2% |
| 28 | Kairat4 | 8.5% | 39.5% | 52.0% | 0.2% |
| 29 | CSKA Sofia6 | 5.4% | 35.3% | 59.3% | 0.2% |
| 30 | Inter Club d'Escaldes5 | 6.9% | 35.1% | 58.0% | 0.1% |
| 31 | KuPS3 | 7.5% | 42.3% | 50.2% | 0.1% |
| 32 | Borac Banja Luka3 | 4.6% | 35.0% | 60.4% | <0.1% |
| 33 | Egnatia6 | 4.2% | 35.2% | 60.6% | <0.1% |
| 34 | Kauno Žalgiris6 | 3.7% | 31.5% | 64.8% | <0.1% |
| 35 | Lincoln Red Imps3 | 3.2% | 26.6% | 70.2% | <0.1% |
| 36 | Iberia 19996 | 0.9% | 14.6% | 84.6% | 0% |
Champion odds. Each column is a checkpoint struck on the date shown and never rewritten afterwards; the newest checkpoint is the last column.
🏴Premier League
2 rounds played
| Team | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 56.2% | 56.2% | 62.7% |
| Manchester City | 21.9% | 21.9% | 25.3% |
| Chelsea | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.2% |
| Brentford | 2.4% | 2.4% | 1.5% |
| Leeds | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.4% |
| Brighton | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.3% |
| Liverpool | 2.8% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| Newcastle | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.1% |
| Bournemouth | 2.8% | 2.8% | 1.0% |
| Manchester United | 2.6% | 2.6% | 1.0% |
| Aston Villa | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.9% |
| Crystal Palace | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Everton | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Fulham | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Tottenham | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Coventry | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Hull City | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ipswich | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Sunderland | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
🇪🇸La Liga
3 rounds played
| Team | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 58.2% | 58.2% | 60.6% |
| Real Madrid | 33.6% | 33.6% | 34.4% |
| Atletico Madrid | 7.1% | 7.1% | 4.5% |
| Real Betis | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Alaves | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Athletic Club | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Osasuna | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rayo Vallecano | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Celta Vigo | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Real Sociedad | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Valencia | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Deportivo La Coruna* | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elche | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Espanyol | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Getafe | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Levante | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Malaga* | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Racing Santander* | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sevilla | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Villarreal | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
* Promoted this season or limited history in this league — the model gives it a cautious starting rating based on the league's own lower-percentile teams.
🇮🇹Serie A
2 rounds played
| Team | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus | 42.9% | 42.9% | 41.9% |
| Inter | 22.1% | 22.1% | 23.6% |
| Como | 20.0% | 20.0% | 17.2% |
| AS Roma | 7.2% | 7.2% | 9.0% |
| AC Milan | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.4% |
| Atalanta | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.0% |
| Lazio | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% |
| Napoli | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Fiorentina | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Udinese | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Bologna | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sassuolo | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cagliari | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Frosinone | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Genoa | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lecce | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Monza | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Parma | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Torino | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Venezia | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
🇩🇪Bundesliga
1 rounds played
| Team | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern München | 87.6% | 87.6% | 90.3% |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 6.1% | 6.1% | 3.2% |
| Borussia Dortmund | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.7% |
| RB Leipzig | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.4% |
| SC Freiburg | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% |
| VfB Stuttgart | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.9% |
| FSV Mainz 05 | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| 1. FC Köln | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| FC Augsburg | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Werder Bremen | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| FC Schalke 04 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hamburger SV | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| SC Paderborn 07 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| SV Elversberg | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Union Berlin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
🇫🇷Ligue 1
2 rounds played
| Team | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain | 97.2% | 97.6% | 96.0% |
| Lens | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% |
| Lille | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.4% |
| Monaco | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Lyon | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Rennes | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Marseille | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Strasbourg | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lorient | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Angers | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Auxerre | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Estac Troyes | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Le Havre | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Le Mans* | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nice | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Paris FC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stade Brestois 29 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Toulouse | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
* Promoted this season or limited history in this league — the model gives it a cautious starting rating based on the league's own lower-percentile teams.
🇹🇷Turkish Super League
3 rounds played
| Team | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray | 46.4% | 46.0% | 51.0% |
| Fenerbahçe | 39.7% | 39.3% | 30.0% |
| Erzurumspor FK | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.9% |
| Beşiktaş | 7.8% | 8.0% | 5.6% |
| Amed | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.0% |
| Başakşehir | 2.9% | 3.1% | 1.3% |
| Trabzonspor | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Göztepe | 2.0% | 2.1% | 0.3% |
| Rizespor | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Çorum FK | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Samsunspor | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kasımpaşa | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kocaelispor | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Konyaspor | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Alanyaspor | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eyüpspor | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gaziantep FK | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
🇵🇹Portuguese Primeira Liga
2 rounds played
| Team | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP | 67.1% | 67.5% | 65.4% |
| Benfica | 26.5% | 26.4% | 23.4% |
| FC Porto | 5.4% | 5.2% | 10.5% |
| SC Braga | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.7% |
| Academico Viseu* | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alverca | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arouca | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Casa Pia | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Estoril | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Estrela | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Famalicao | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| GIL Vicente | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maritimo | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Moreirense | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nacional | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rio Ave | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Santa Clara | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vitória SC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
* Promoted this season or limited history in this league — the model gives it a cautious starting rating based on the league's own lower-percentile teams.
🇳🇱Dutch Eredivisie
3 rounds played
| Team | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven | 86.6% | 86.6% | 88.1% |
| AZ Alkmaar | 1.7% | 1.5% | 3.5% |
| Ajax | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.2% |
| Twente | 3.6% | 3.8% | 2.6% |
| NEC Nijmegen | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.6% |
| Feyenoord | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| Utrecht | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Groningen | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| GO Ahead Eagles | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Heerenveen | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Excelsior | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Telstar | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| ADO Den Haag | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cambuur | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Fortuna Sittard | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| PEC Zwolle | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sparta Rotterdam | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Willem II | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
🏴Scottish Premiership
3 rounds played
| Team | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic | 54.5% | 56.5% | 70.2% |
| Rangers | 22.9% | 19.9% | 12.5% |
| Heart Of Midlothian | 13.5% | 14.0% | 9.4% |
| Hibernian | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.3% |
| Motherwell | 5.3% | 5.6% | 3.6% |
| Aberdeen | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dundee | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dundee Utd | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Falkirk | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kilmarnock | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| ST Johnstone | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| ST Mirren | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
🇨🇭Swiss Super League
4 rounds played
| Team | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Lugano | 19.3% | 22.5% | 44.3% |
| FC Sion | 36.4% | 28.5% | 24.8% |
| BSC Young Boys | 16.8% | 23.4% | 19.7% |
| FC ST. Gallen | 9.8% | 11.8% | 6.3% |
| FC Thun | 3.3% | 5.5% | 2.2% |
| Servette FC | 9.9% | 5.5% | 1.6% |
| FC Luzern | 4.5% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| FC Basel 1893 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| FC Vaduz | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| FC Zurich | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grasshoppers | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lausanne | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
🇦🇹Austrian Bundesliga
4 rounds played
| Team | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lask Linz | 57.4% | 62.5% | 76.3% |
| Red Bull Salzburg | 10.7% | 9.2% | 13.6% |
| Sturm Graz | 25.5% | 23.1% | 7.7% |
| Rapid Vienna | 0.2% | 0.3% | 1.6% |
| Grazer AK | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| TSV Hartberg | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Austria Vienna | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Wolfsberger AC | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Ried | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Austria Lustenau | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| SCR Altach | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| WSG Wattens | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
🇬🇷Greek Super League
1 rounds played
| Team | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens FC | 57.1% | 56.2% | 42.4% |
| Olympiakos Piraeus | 22.2% | 23.2% | 29.0% |
| PAOK | 17.0% | 17.0% | 23.9% |
| Panathinaikos | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.6% |
| Aris Thessalonikis | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| OFI | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Asteras Tripolis | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Atromitos | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Iraklis 1908* | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kalamata* | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kifisia | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Levadiakos | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Panetolikos | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Volos NFC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
* Promoted this season or limited history in this league — the model gives it a cautious starting rating based on the league's own lower-percentile teams.
🇺🇦Ukrainian Premier League
2 rounds played
| Team | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shakhtar Donetsk | 80.6% | 82.1% | 84.0% |
| Dynamo Kyiv | 9.0% | 8.7% | 7.0% |
| Polessya | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.5% |
| Karpaty | 1.1% | 0.4% | 1.7% |
| LNZ Cherkasy | 3.7% | 3.4% | 0.5% |
| FC Kharkiv | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Zorya Luhansk | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kryvbas KR | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Bukovyna* | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chornomorets | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kolos Kovalivka | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kudrivka | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Livyi Bereh | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Obolon'-Brovar | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Veres Rivne | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
* Promoted this season or limited history in this league — the model gives it a cautious starting rating based on the league's own lower-percentile teams.
🇷🇺Russian Premier League
6 rounds played
| Team | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Krasnodar | 41.5% | 44.1% | 68.8% |
| Zenit | 53.1% | 51.9% | 28.8% |
| Spartak Moscow | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.6% |
| Dynamo | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Baltika | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| CSKA Moscow | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Lokomotiv | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Akhmat | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Akron | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dinamo Makhachkala | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| FC Orenburg | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| FC Rostov | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Fakel | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Krylia Sovetov | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rodina Moskva | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rubin | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
🏴English Championship
3 rounds played
| Team | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham | 66.3% | 67.4% | 47.6% |
| Southampton | 22.1% | 21.4% | 28.4% |
| Wolves | 7.6% | 7.6% | 12.4% |
| Lincoln | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.7% |
| Middlesbrough | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.8% |
| Millwall | 0.9% | 0.8% | 2.2% |
| Burnley | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| Norwich | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Cardiff | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| Swansea | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| Derby | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| West Brom | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Birmingham | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Blackburn | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bolton | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bristol City | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charlton | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Portsmouth | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Preston | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| QPR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sheffield Utd | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stoke City | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Watford | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wrexham | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
🏴English League One
2 rounds played
| Team | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stockport County | 19.8% | 20.0% | 23.7% |
| Plymouth | 23.4% | 24.3% | 19.8% |
| Mansfield Town | 17.2% | 17.1% | 17.8% |
| Luton | 14.7% | 15.2% | 12.0% |
| Oxford United | 11.1% | 10.1% | 11.5% |
| Huddersfield | 2.5% | 2.5% | 4.3% |
| Leicester | 7.9% | 7.7% | 3.3% |
| Cambridge United | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.2% |
| Milton Keynes Dons | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.9% |
| Wycombe | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.9% |
| Blackpool | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% |
| Reading | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Bradford | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Notts County | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| Burton Albion | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Bromley | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leyton Orient | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Doncaster | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Peterborough | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stevenage | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wigan | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| AFC Wimbledon | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Barnsley | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sheffield Wednesday | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
🏴English League Two
3 rounds played
| Team | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| York | 0.0% | 0.0% | 85.3% |
| Barnet | 23.3% | 23.6% | 5.4% |
| Grimsby | 31.3% | 29.9% | 4.6% |
| Oldham | 9.9% | 10.1% | 1.6% |
| Bristol Rovers | 8.6% | 9.2% | 1.4% |
| Rochdale | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.6% |
| Salford City | 14.7% | 15.2% | 0.4% |
| Colchester | 2.5% | 2.4% | 0.4% |
| Exeter City | 2.8% | 2.8% | 0.1% |
| Chesterfield | 3.9% | 3.8% | 0.1% |
| Crewe | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Port Vale | 2.5% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| Fleetwood Town | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Accrington ST | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cheltenham | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Crawley Town | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gillingham | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Newport County | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Northampton | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rotherham | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Shrewsbury | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Swindon Town | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tranmere | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Walsall | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
🏴English National League
4 rounds played
| Team | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boreham Wood | 37.7% | 37.4% | 58.9% |
| Carlisle | 29.1% | 29.5% | 17.8% |
| Southend | 15.6% | 15.6% | 17.6% |
| Forest Green | 10.8% | 10.0% | 3.9% |
| Woking | 5.5% | 5.9% | 1.2% |
| Boston United | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| FC Halifax Town | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Altrincham | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Tamworth | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Scunthorpe | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Harrogate Town | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wealdstone | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Solihull Moors | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| AFC Fylde | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| AFC Hornchurch* | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aldershot Town | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Barrow | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eastleigh | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gateshead | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hartlepool | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kidderminster Harriers | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sutton Utd | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Worthing* | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Yeovil Town | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
* Promoted this season or limited history in this league — the model gives it a cautious starting rating based on the league's own lower-percentile teams.
🇹🇷Turkish 1st League
4 rounds played
| Team | Jul 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Esenler Erokspor | 52.7% | 52.5% | 39.9% |
| Keçiörengücü | 19.6% | 19.6% | 24.8% |
| Bandırmaspor | 8.0% | 8.3% | 15.3% |
| Bodrum FK | 15.1% | 15.4% | 11.4% |
| Kayserispor | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.9% |
| Sarıyer | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.7% |
| Pendikspor | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.3% |
| Manisa F.K. | 0.2% | 0.2% | 1.3% |
| İstanbulspor | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% |
| Fatih Karagümrük | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.8% |
| Batman Petrolspor* | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| Iğdır FK | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Muğlaspor* | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Mardin 1969* | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ümraniyespor | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bursaspor | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Antalyaspor | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Boluspor | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sivasspor | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vanspor FK | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
* Promoted this season or limited history in this league — the model gives it a cautious starting rating based on the league's own lower-percentile teams.
A pure model, our own probabilities only, nothing blended in from outside. Home advantage applies to the actual home team in every match — unlike the World Cup, there are no neutral venues.