World Cup 2026 — Goalence Forecast
Our Pi-Ratings model ran the whole tournament hundreds of millions of times. Below are every team's pre-tournament odds — and how those odds shift after each round.
Goalence Pi-Ratings (FIFA-anchored) · Monte Carlo, pure model · Updated: 2026-06-04
Champion
The right-hand columns fill in as the tournament unfolds: once a round's matches finish, we re-run the model with the real results locked and post the new championship odds. Eliminated teams stay at 0%.
Pre = pre-tournament · MD1/2/3 = after group matchday 1/2/3 · R32/R16 = after Round of 32/16 · QF/SF = after quarter-/semi-finals.
| # | Team | Pre | MD1 | MD2 | MD3 | R32 | R16 | QF | SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇦🇷Argentina | 11.4% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2 | 🇪🇸Spain | 9.7% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3 | 🇫🇷France | 8.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | 🇧🇷Brazil | 6.6% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5 | 🏴England | 6.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 6 | 🇵🇹Portugal | 6.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7 | 🇨🇴Colombia | 5.4% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 8 | 🇩🇪Germany | 4.8% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9 | 🇳🇱Netherlands | 4.7% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 10 | 🇧🇪Belgium | 4.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 11 | 🇯🇵Japan | 3.7% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 12 | 🇲🇦Morocco | 3.6% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 13 | 🇨🇭Switzerland | 3.4% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 14 | 🇭🇷Croatia | 2.7% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 15 | 🇲🇽Mexico | 2.4% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 16 | 🇳🇴Norway | 2.3% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 17 | 🇺🇾Uruguay | 2.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 18 | 🇸🇳Senegal | 1.6% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 19 | 🇪🇨Ecuador | 1.4% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 20 | 🇦🇹Austria | 1.4% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 21 | 🇮🇷Iran | 1.3% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 22 | 🇺🇸USA | 1.2% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 23 | 🇦🇺Australia | 0.9% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 24 | 🇹🇷Türkiye | 0.9% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 25 | 🇩🇿Algeria | 0.8% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 26 | 🇰🇷South Korea | 0.8% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 27 | 🇨🇦Canada | 0.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 28 | 🇸🇪Sweden | 0.4% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 29 | 🇪🇬Egypt | 0.3% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 30 | 🇵🇾Paraguay | 0.3% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 31 | 🏴Scotland | 0.3% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 32 | 🇨🇿Czech Republic | 0.2% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 33 | 🇨🇮Ivory Coast | 0.2% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 34 | 🇹🇳Tunisia | 0.2% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 35 | 🇬🇭Ghana | <0.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 36 | 🇿🇦South Africa | <0.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 37 | 🇸🇦Saudi Arabia | <0.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 38 | 🇧🇦Bosnia & Herzegovina | <0.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 39 | 🇳🇿New Zealand | <0.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 40 | 🇵🇦Panama | <0.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 41 | 🇺🇿Uzbekistan | <0.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 42 | 🇨🇩Congo DR | <0.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 43 | 🇨🇻Cape Verde | 0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 44 | 🇯🇴Jordan | 0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 45 | 🇮🇶Iraq | 0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 46 | 🇨🇼Curaçao | 0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 47 | 🇶🇦Qatar | 0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 48 | 🇭🇹Haiti | 0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Most-likely bracket
Our model's single most-likely path — groups to the final, with every score. Half these ties are coin-flips, so the real twists start here.
Pure model — our own probabilities only, nothing external blended in. Forecast-tracking: figures are logged before each round.
How the model works →