🏆 UEFA Champions League · 1st Qualifying Round
Flora Tallinn vs Saburtalo
Jul 08, 04:00 PM · A. Le Coq Arena
Normal PREDICTIONConfidence ThresholdGoalence groups predictions into three tiers by the probability of the picked outcome: Elite (≥ 70%), Safe (55-70%), and Normal (< 55%). Accuracy is reported separately for each tier so users can see how the model performs at its strongest signal.→
Saburtalo Away Win
44%
Predicted score: 0-1
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match ResultMatch Result (1X2)The traditional outcome market: Home win (1), Draw (X), or Away win (2). Goalence outputs three probabilities summing to 100% for every fixture.→
Over/Under 2.5Over/Under 2.5A prediction market that resolves Over if the total goals in the match are 3 or more, Under if 2 or fewer. Computed from Goalence's two lambdas: P(home_goals + away_goals ≥ 3).→
Both Teams ScoreBTTS — Both Teams To ScoreA prediction market that resolves Yes if both teams score at least one goal in the match, No otherwise. Goalence outputs a BTTS probability for every fixture by integrating the Poisson distribution over scorelines.→
Most Likely Scores
1-1
12.3%
0-1
10.5%
1-2
9.0%
1-0
8.4%
0-2
7.6%
Pre-match Outlook
Saburtalo hold a slim edge over Flora Tallinn in this UEFA Champions League match — 44% confidence puts it in the Normal tier with a 0-1 projection.
In this UEFA Champions League context, small swings in form or selection can flip the projection — treat the narrow-confidence pick as a starting point rather than a lock.
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Flora Tallinn vs Saburtalo — Saburtalo Away Win: 44%.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.