🏆 UEFA Champions League
Larne vs FK Crvena Zvezda
Jul 21, 07:00 PM
0 – 4
Larne vs FK Crvena Zvezda
Match Result
FK Crvena Zvezda Away Win→FK Crvena Zvezda Away Win
Over/Under 2.5
Under 2.5 2.5→4 (Over 2.5)
Both Teams Score
BTTS: No→BTTS: No
Recorded before kickoff · never revised after
FK Crvena Zvezda Away Win
83%
Predicted score: 0-1
1Outcome Probabilities
Match ResultMatch Result (1X2)The traditional outcome market: Home win (1), Draw (X), or Away win (2). Goalence outputs three probabilities summing to 100% for every fixture.→
FK Crvena Zvezda Away Win
83%
Over/Under 2.5Over/Under 2.5A prediction market that resolves Over if the total goals in the match are 3 or more, Under if 2 or fewer. Computed from Goalence's two lambdas: P(home_goals + away_goals ≥ 3).→
Under 2.5 2.5
71%
Both Teams ScoreBTTS — Both Teams To ScoreA prediction market that resolves Yes if both teams score at least one goal in the match, No otherwise. Goalence outputs a BTTS probability for every fixture by integrating the Poisson distribution over scorelines.→
BTTS: No
62%
Confidence: ELITE.
2Most Likely Scores
Pre-match Outlook
Goalence's Pi-Ratings model gives FK Crvena Zvezda a clear edge against Larne in UEFA Champions League — 83% confidence (ELITE tier) with an expected scoreline of 0-1.
The model favors a one-sided sheet — BTTS no at 62% — pointing toward at least one team being kept off the board.
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Larne vs FK Crvena Zvezda — FK Crvena Zvezda Away Win: 83%.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.