🏆 UEFA Champions League · 2nd Qualifying Round
Lech Poznan vs Aarhus
Jul 28, 05:00 PM · Stadion Poznan
ELITE PREDICTIONConfidence ThresholdGoalence groups predictions into three tiers by the probability of the picked outcome: Elite (≥ 70%), Safe (55-70%), and Normal (< 55%). Accuracy is reported separately for each tier so users can see how the model performs at its strongest signal.→
Lech Poznan Home Win
74%
Predicted score: 1-0
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match ResultMatch Result (1X2)The traditional outcome market: Home win (1), Draw (X), or Away win (2). Goalence outputs three probabilities summing to 100% for every fixture.→
Over/Under 2.5Over/Under 2.5A prediction market that resolves Over if the total goals in the match are 3 or more, Under if 2 or fewer. Computed from Goalence's two lambdas: P(home_goals + away_goals ≥ 3).→
Both Teams ScoreBTTS — Both Teams To ScoreA prediction market that resolves Yes if both teams score at least one goal in the match, No otherwise. Goalence outputs a BTTS probability for every fixture by integrating the Poisson distribution over scorelines.→
Most Likely Scores
1-0
19.2%
2-0
18.3%
3-0
11.6%
0-0
10.0%
1-1
7.5%
Pre-match Outlook
Goalence's Pi-Ratings model gives Lech Poznan a clear edge against Aarhus in UEFA Champions League — 74% confidence (ELITE tier) with an expected scoreline of 1-0.
The model favors a one-sided sheet — BTTS no at 50% — pointing toward at least one team being kept off the board.
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Lech Poznan vs Aarhus — Lech Poznan Home Win: 74%.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.