🏆 UEFA Champions League · Final
Paris Saint Germain vs Arsenal
May 30, 04:00 PM · Puskas Arena
○ Normal PREDICTION
Arsenal Away Win
40%
Predicted score: 0-1
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Paris Saint Germain33%
Draw27%
Arsenal40%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 (3+)47%
Under 2.5 (0-2)53%
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes52%
BTTS: No48%
Most Likely Scores
0-1
10.4%
1-2
8.5%
0-2
7.0%
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Paris Saint Germain vs Arsenal — Arsenal Away Win: 40%. λ (Home): 1.21 · λ (Away): 1.35.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.