🏆 UEFA Champions League · 1st Qualifying Round
Tre Fiori vs Larne
Jul 07, 06:30 PM · San Marino Stadium
SOLID PREDICTIONConfidence ThresholdGoalence groups predictions into three tiers by the probability of the picked outcome: Elite (≥ 70%), Safe (55-70%), and Normal (< 55%). Accuracy is reported separately for each tier so users can see how the model performs at its strongest signal.→
Tre Fiori Home Win
57%
Predicted score: 1-0
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match ResultMatch Result (1X2)The traditional outcome market: Home win (1), Draw (X), or Away win (2). Goalence outputs three probabilities summing to 100% for every fixture.→
Over/Under 2.5Over/Under 2.5A prediction market that resolves Over if the total goals in the match are 3 or more, Under if 2 or fewer. Computed from Goalence's two lambdas: P(home_goals + away_goals ≥ 3).→
Both Teams ScoreBTTS — Both Teams To ScoreA prediction market that resolves Yes if both teams score at least one goal in the match, No otherwise. Goalence outputs a BTTS probability for every fixture by integrating the Poisson distribution over scorelines.→
Most Likely Scores
1-0
24.3%
0-0
19.9%
2-0
14.8%
1-1
9.6%
0-1
7.8%
Pre-match Outlook
Tre Fiori enter this UEFA Champions League fixture with a measured advantage over Larne (57% confidence, SOLID tier) and a projected 1-0 result.
The model favors a one-sided sheet — BTTS no at 52% — pointing toward at least one team being kept off the board.
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Tre Fiori vs Larne — Tre Fiori Home Win: 57%.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.