🏆 UEFA Conference League · Final
Crystal Palace vs Rayo Vallecano
May 27, 07:00 PM · Red Bull Arena
○ Normal PREDICTION
Crystal Palace Home Win
50%
Predicted score: 1-0
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Crystal Palace50%
Draw29%
Rayo Vallecano21%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 (3+)33%
Under 2.5 (0-2)67%
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes38%
BTTS: No62%
Most Likely Scores
1-0
17.1%
2-0
11.1%
2-1
8.1%
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Crystal Palace vs Rayo Vallecano — Crystal Palace Home Win: 50%. λ (Home): 1.30 · λ (Away): 0.73.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.