🏆 UEFA Conference League · 2nd Qualifying Round
Spartak Trnava vs CSKA 1948
Jul 23, 05:00 PM · City Arena Trnava
ELITE PREDICTIONConfidence ThresholdGoalence groups predictions into three tiers by the probability of the picked outcome: Elite (≥ 70%), Safe (55-70%), and Normal (< 55%). Accuracy is reported separately for each tier so users can see how the model performs at its strongest signal.→
Spartak Trnava Home Win
72%
Predicted score: 2-0
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match ResultMatch Result (1X2)The traditional outcome market: Home win (1), Draw (X), or Away win (2). Goalence outputs three probabilities summing to 100% for every fixture.→
Over/Under 2.5Over/Under 2.5A prediction market that resolves Over if the total goals in the match are 3 or more, Under if 2 or fewer. Computed from Goalence's two lambdas: P(home_goals + away_goals ≥ 3).→
Both Teams ScoreBTTS — Both Teams To ScoreA prediction market that resolves Yes if both teams score at least one goal in the match, No otherwise. Goalence outputs a BTTS probability for every fixture by integrating the Poisson distribution over scorelines.→
Most Likely Scores
2-0
12.7%
1-0
11.3%
3-0
9.6%
2-1
9.4%
1-1
8.4%
Pre-match Outlook
Goalence's Pi-Ratings model gives Spartak Trnava a clear edge against CSKA 1948 in UEFA Conference League — 72% confidence (ELITE tier) with an expected scoreline of 2-0.
Both teams are projected to score (54% BTTS yes), suggesting an open contest where neither defense fully shuts down the opponent.
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Spartak Trnava vs CSKA 1948 — Spartak Trnava Home Win: 72%.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.