🏆 UEFA Europa League
Benfica vs Lech Poznan
Nov 05, 08:00 PM
3 – 1
Benfica vs Lech Poznan
Match Result
Benfica Home Win→Benfica Home Win
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 2.5→4 (Over 2.5)
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes→BTTS: Yes
Recorded before kickoff · never revised after
Benfica Home Win
77%
Predicted score: 2-1
1Outcome Probabilities
Match ResultMatch Result (1X2)The traditional outcome market: Home win (1), Draw (X), or Away win (2). Goalence outputs three probabilities summing to 100% for every fixture.→
Benfica Home Win
77%
Over/Under 2.5Over/Under 2.5A prediction market that resolves Over if the total goals in the match are 3 or more, Under if 2 or fewer. Computed from Goalence's two lambdas: P(home_goals + away_goals ≥ 3).→
Over 2.5 2.5
78%
Both Teams ScoreBTTS — Both Teams To ScoreA prediction market that resolves Yes if both teams score at least one goal in the match, No otherwise. Goalence outputs a BTTS probability for every fixture by integrating the Poisson distribution over scorelines.→
BTTS: Yes
60%
Confidence: ELITE.
2Most Likely Scores
Pre-match Outlook
Goalence's Pi-Ratings model gives Benfica a clear edge against Lech Poznan in UEFA Europa League — 77% confidence (ELITE tier) with an expected scoreline of 2-1.
Both teams are projected to score (60% BTTS yes), suggesting an open contest where neither defense fully shuts down the opponent.
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Benfica vs Lech Poznan — Benfica Home Win: 77%.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.