🏆 UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 2
Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz
Oct 15, 07:00 PM · Vitality Stadium
✓ Recorded before kickoff
Bournemouth Home Win
91%
Predicted score: 2-0
1Outcome Probabilities
Match ResultMatch Result (1X2)The traditional outcome market: Home win (1), Draw (X), or Away win (2). Goalence outputs three probabilities summing to 100% for every fixture.→
Bournemouth Home Win
91%
Over/Under 2.5Over/Under 2.5A prediction market that resolves Over if the total goals in the match are 3 or more, Under if 2 or fewer. Computed from Goalence's two lambdas: P(home_goals + away_goals ≥ 3).→
Under 2.5 2.5
51%
Both Teams ScoreBTTS — Both Teams To ScoreA prediction market that resolves Yes if both teams score at least one goal in the match, No otherwise. Goalence outputs a BTTS probability for every fixture by integrating the Poisson distribution over scorelines.→
BTTS: No
61%
Confidence: ELITE.
2Most Likely Scores
3Drama Profile
How both teams have handled pressure across the season.
Historical pattern, informational only.
Pre-match Outlook
Goalence's Pi-Ratings model gives Bournemouth a clear edge against Sturm Graz in UEFA Europa League — 91% confidence (ELITE tier) with an expected scoreline of 2-0.
The model favors a one-sided sheet — BTTS no at 61% — pointing toward at least one team being kept off the board.
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz — Bournemouth Home Win: 91%.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.