🏆 UEFA Europa League · 2nd Qualifying Round
FC Midtjylland vs Beşiktaş
Jul 30, 05:00 PM · MCH Arena
Drama Profile
How both teams have handled pressure across the season.
Historical pattern, informational only.
Normal PREDICTIONConfidence ThresholdGoalence groups predictions into three tiers by the probability of the picked outcome: Elite (≥ 70%), Safe (55-70%), and Normal (< 55%). Accuracy is reported separately for each tier so users can see how the model performs at its strongest signal.→
FC Midtjylland Home Win
53%
Predicted score: 2-1
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match ResultMatch Result (1X2)The traditional outcome market: Home win (1), Draw (X), or Away win (2). Goalence outputs three probabilities summing to 100% for every fixture.→
Over/Under 2.5Over/Under 2.5A prediction market that resolves Over if the total goals in the match are 3 or more, Under if 2 or fewer. Computed from Goalence's two lambdas: P(home_goals + away_goals ≥ 3).→
Both Teams ScoreBTTS — Both Teams To ScoreA prediction market that resolves Yes if both teams score at least one goal in the match, No otherwise. Goalence outputs a BTTS probability for every fixture by integrating the Poisson distribution over scorelines.→
Most Likely Scores
1-1
10.0%
2-1
9.7%
1-0
8.0%
2-0
7.7%
1-2
6.3%
Pre-match Outlook
FC Midtjylland enter this UEFA Europa League fixture with a measured advantage over Beşiktaş (53% confidence, Normal tier) and a projected 2-1 result.
In this UEFA Europa League context, small swings in form or selection can flip the projection — treat the moderate-confidence pick as a starting point rather than a lock.
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
FC Midtjylland vs Beşiktaş — FC Midtjylland Home Win: 53%.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.