🏆 UEFA Europa League · Play-offs
Jagiellonia vs Saburtalo
Aug 20, 04:00 PM · Chorten Arena
✓ Recorded before kickoff
Jagiellonia Home Win
74%
Predicted score: 1-0
1Outcome Probabilities
Match ResultMatch Result (1X2)The traditional outcome market: Home win (1), Draw (X), or Away win (2). Goalence outputs three probabilities summing to 100% for every fixture.→
Jagiellonia Home Win
74%
Over/Under 2.5Over/Under 2.5A prediction market that resolves Over if the total goals in the match are 3 or more, Under if 2 or fewer. Computed from Goalence's two lambdas: P(home_goals + away_goals ≥ 3).→
Under 2.5 2.5
52%
Both Teams ScoreBTTS — Both Teams To ScoreA prediction market that resolves Yes if both teams score at least one goal in the match, No otherwise. Goalence outputs a BTTS probability for every fixture by integrating the Poisson distribution over scorelines.→
BTTS: No
54%
Confidence: ELITE.
2Most Likely Scores
Pre-match Outlook
Goalence's Pi-Ratings model gives Jagiellonia a clear edge against Saburtalo in UEFA Europa League — 74% confidence (ELITE tier) with an expected scoreline of 1-0.
The model favors a one-sided sheet — BTTS no at 54% — pointing toward at least one team being kept off the board.
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Jagiellonia vs Saburtalo — Jagiellonia Home Win: 74%.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.