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🌍 International Friendlies · Friendly International

Botswana vs Niger

Jun 09, 12:00 PM

Normal PREDICTION

Niger Away Win

48%

Predicted score: 0-1

Outcome Probabilities

1X2 — Match Result

Botswana23%
Draw29%
Niger48%

Over/Under 2.5

Over 2.5 (3+)33%
Under 2.5 (0-2)67%

Both Teams Score

BTTS: Yes39%
BTTS: No61%

Most Likely Scores

0-1

16.4%

0-2

10.3%

1-2

8.0%

Pre-match Outlook

Niger enter this International Friendlies fixture with a measured advantage over Botswana (48% confidence, Normal tier) and a projected 0-1 result.

Goal volume is muted — λ 0.78 for Botswana, λ 1.25 for Niger, total 2.03; under 2.5 carries 67% weight.

In this International Friendlies context, small swings in form or selection can flip the projection — treat the moderate-confidence pick as a starting point rather than a lock.

How the Model Works

We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.

Botswana vs NigerNiger Away Win: 48%. λ (Home): 0.78 · λ (Away): 1.25.

Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.