🌍 International Friendlies · Friendly International
Bulgaria vs Montenegro
Jun 01, 04:00 PM · Stadion Hristo Botev
○ Normal PREDICTION
Bulgaria Home Win
43%
Predicted score: 2-1
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Bulgaria43%
Draw24%
Montenegro33%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 (3+)58%
Under 2.5 (0-2)42%
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes60%
BTTS: No40%
Most Likely Scores
2-1
9.0%
1-0
8.1%
2-0
6.5%
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Bulgaria vs Montenegro — Bulgaria Home Win: 43%. λ (Home): 1.62 · λ (Away): 1.38.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.