Central African Republic vs Togo

Pre-match Outlook

Togo enter this International Friendlies fixture with a measured advantage over Central African Republic (51% confidence, Normal tier) and a projected 0-1 result.

Goal expectation is balanced — λ 0.85 for Central African Republic, λ 1.42 for Togo, total 2.27; the over/under read is under 2.5 at 60%.

In this International Friendlies context, small swings in form or selection can flip the projection — treat the moderate-confidence pick as a starting point rather than a lock.

How the Model Works

We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.

Central African Republic vs Togo — Togo Away Win: 51%. λ (Home): 0.85 · λ (Away): 1.42.