🌍 International Friendlies · Friendly International
China vs Thailand
Jun 09, 10:00 AM · Yellow Dragon Stadium
○ Normal PREDICTION
China Home Win
50%
Predicted score: 2-1
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Most Likely Scores
2-1
9.6%
1-0
9.5%
2-0
8.2%
Pre-match Outlook
China enter this International Friendlies fixture with a measured advantage over Thailand (50% confidence, Normal tier) and a projected 2-1 result.
Goal expectation is balanced — λ 1.72 for China, λ 1.17 for Thailand, total 2.89; the over/under read is over 2.5 at 55%.
In this International Friendlies context, small swings in form or selection can flip the projection — treat the moderate-confidence pick as a starting point rather than a lock.
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
China vs Thailand — China Home Win: 50%. λ (Home): 1.72 · λ (Away): 1.17.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.