🌍 International Friendlies · Friendly International
Croatia vs Belgium
Jun 02, 04:00 PM · Stadion HNK Rijeka
○ Normal PREDICTION
Croatia Home Win
42%
Predicted score: 2-1
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Croatia42%
Draw22%
Belgium37%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 (3+)71%
Under 2.5 (0-2)29%
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes71%
BTTS: No29%
Most Likely Scores
2-1
8.1%
3-1
5.2%
1-0
4.7%
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Croatia vs Belgium — Croatia Home Win: 42%. λ (Home): 1.91 · λ (Away): 1.78.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.