🌍 International Friendlies · Friendly International
Ecuador vs Guatemala
Jun 07, 08:00 PM · ScottsMiracle-Gro Field
🔥 ELITE PREDICTION
Ecuador Home Win
90%
Predicted score: 2-0
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Ecuador90%
Draw10%
Guatemala0%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 (3+)44%
Under 2.5 (0-2)56%
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes4%
BTTS: No96%
Most Likely Scores
2-0
24.9%
1-0
21.0%
3-0
19.8%
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Ecuador vs Guatemala — Ecuador Home Win: 90%. λ (Home): 2.38 · λ (Away): 0.05.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.