🌍 International Friendlies · Friendly International
Ecuador vs Saudi Arabia
May 30, 11:30 PM · Sports Illustrated Stadium
🔥 ELITE PREDICTION
Ecuador Home Win
81%
Predicted score: 1-0
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Ecuador81%
Draw18%
Saudi Arabia1%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 (3+)26%
Under 2.5 (0-2)74%
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes4%
BTTS: No96%
Most Likely Scores
1-0
29.2%
2-0
25.2%
3-0
14.6%
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Ecuador vs Saudi Arabia — Ecuador Home Win: 81%. λ (Home): 1.73 · λ (Away): 0.05.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.