🌍 International Friendlies · Friendly International
Ethiopia vs Malawi
Jun 09, 12:00 PM
○ Normal PREDICTION
Ethiopia Home Win
47%
Predicted score: 1-0
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Ethiopia47%
Draw28%
Malawi24%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 (3+)37%
Under 2.5 (0-2)63%
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes42%
BTTS: No58%
Most Likely Scores
1-0
15.1%
2-0
9.9%
2-1
8.4%
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Ethiopia vs Malawi — Ethiopia Home Win: 47%. λ (Home): 1.31 · λ (Away): 0.85.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.