International Friendlies
Hong Kong vs Mongolia
Jun 05, 12:00 PM
Full Time
2 – 0
Hong Kong vs Mongolia
Our prediction: Hong Kong Home Win ✓ Correct
ELITE PREDICTIONConfidence ThresholdGoalence groups predictions into three tiers by the probability of the picked outcome: Elite (≥ 70%), Safe (55-70%), and Normal (< 55%). Accuracy is reported separately for each tier so users can see how the model performs at its strongest signal.→
Hong Kong Home Win
78%
Predicted score: 1-0
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match ResultMatch Result (1X2)The traditional outcome market: Home win (1), Draw (X), or Away win (2). Goalence outputs three probabilities summing to 100% for every fixture.→
Over/Under 2.5Over/Under 2.5A prediction market that resolves Over if the total goals in the match are 3 or more, Under if 2 or fewer. Computed from Goalence's two lambdas: P(home_goals + away_goals ≥ 3).→
Both Teams ScoreBTTS — Both Teams To ScoreA prediction market that resolves Yes if both teams score at least one goal in the match, No otherwise. Goalence outputs a BTTS probability for every fixture by integrating the Poisson distribution over scorelines.→
Most Likely Scores
1-0
21.7%
2-0
20.8%
3-0
13.3%
Pre-match Outlook
Goalence's Pi-Ratings model gives Hong Kong a clear edge against Mongolia in International Friendlies — 78% confidence (ELITE tier) with an expected scoreline of 1-0.
The model favors a one-sided sheet — BTTS no at 80% — pointing toward at least one team being kept off the board.
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Hong Kong vs Mongolia — Hong Kong Home Win: 78%.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.