🌍 International Friendlies · Friendly International
Indonesia vs Mozambique
Jun 09, 01:00 PM
○ Normal PREDICTION
Indonesia Home Win
49%
Predicted score: 2-1
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Most Likely Scores
2-1
9.2%
1-0
6.6%
2-0
6.4%
Pre-match Outlook
Indonesia enter this International Friendlies fixture with a measured advantage over Mozambique (49% confidence, Normal tier) and a projected 2-1 result.
Expected goals lean high — λ 1.94 for Indonesia, λ 1.44 for Mozambique, summing to 3.38; over 2.5 sits at 66% probability.
In this International Friendlies context, small swings in form or selection can flip the projection — treat the moderate-confidence pick as a starting point rather than a lock.
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Indonesia vs Mozambique — Indonesia Home Win: 49%. λ (Home): 1.94 · λ (Away): 1.44.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.