🌍 International Friendlies · Friendly International
Lebanon vs Sudan
May 29, 04:00 PM
○ Normal PREDICTION
Draw
36%
Predicted score: 0-0
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Most Likely Scores
0-0
20.8%
1-1
12.8%
2-2
2.0%
Pre-match Outlook
Lebanon vs Sudan (International Friendlies) reads as a tight affair: a draw is favored at 36% confidence (Normal tier), with the model projecting 0-0.
Goal volume is muted — λ 0.80 for Lebanon, λ 0.77 for Sudan, total 1.57; under 2.5 carries 79% weight.
In this International Friendlies context, small swings in form or selection can flip the projection — treat the narrow-confidence pick as a starting point rather than a lock.
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Lebanon vs Sudan — Draw: 36%. λ (Home): 0.80 · λ (Away): 0.77.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.