🌍 International Friendlies · Friendly International
Mauritania vs Liberia
Jun 09, 12:00 PM
⭐ SAFE PREDICTION
Mauritania Home Win
70%
Predicted score: 1-0
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Most Likely Scores
1-0
26.0%
2-0
19.6%
3-0
9.9%
Pre-match Outlook
Goalence's Pi-Ratings model gives Mauritania a clear edge against Liberia in International Friendlies — 70% confidence (SAFE tier) with an expected scoreline of 1-0.
Goal volume is muted — λ 1.51 for Mauritania, λ 0.25 for Liberia, total 1.76; under 2.5 carries 74% weight.
The model favors a one-sided sheet — BTTS no at 83% — pointing toward at least one team being kept off the board.
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Mauritania vs Liberia — Mauritania Home Win: 70%. λ (Home): 1.51 · λ (Away): 0.25.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.