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🌍 International Friendlies · Friendly International

Mexico vs Australia

May 31, 02:00 AM · Rose Bowl

Normal PREDICTION

Mexico Home Win

43%

Predicted score: 1-0

Outcome Probabilities

1X2 — Match Result

Mexico43%
Draw33%
Australia24%

Over/Under 2.5

Over 2.5 (3+)25%
Under 2.5 (0-2)75%

Both Teams Score

BTTS: Yes32%
BTTS: No68%

Most Likely Scores

1-0

18.2%

2-0

9.4%

2-1

6.6%

How the Model Works

We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.

Mexico vs AustraliaMexico Home Win: 43%. λ (Home): 1.03 · λ (Away): 0.70.

Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.