🌍 International Friendlies · Friendly International
Mexico vs Australia
May 31, 02:00 AM · Rose Bowl
○ Normal PREDICTION
Mexico Home Win
43%
Predicted score: 1-0
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Mexico43%
Draw33%
Australia24%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 (3+)25%
Under 2.5 (0-2)75%
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes32%
BTTS: No68%
Most Likely Scores
1-0
18.2%
2-0
9.4%
2-1
6.6%
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Mexico vs Australia — Mexico Home Win: 43%. λ (Home): 1.03 · λ (Away): 0.70.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.