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🌍 International Friendlies · Friendly International

Mexico vs Serbia

Jun 05, 02:00 AM

SAFE PREDICTION

Mexico Home Win

60%

Predicted score: 1-0

Outcome Probabilities

1X2 — Match Result

Mexico60%
Draw30%
Serbia10%

Over/Under 2.5

Over 2.5 (3+)22%
Under 2.5 (0-2)78%

Both Teams Score

BTTS: Yes21%
BTTS: No79%

Most Likely Scores

1-0

25.2%

2-0

16.1%

3-0

6.8%

How the Model Works

We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.

Mexico vs SerbiaMexico Home Win: 60%. λ (Home): 1.27 · λ (Away): 0.35.

Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.