International Friendlies
Moldova vs Bulgaria
Jun 05, 05:00 PM
Full Time
2 – 2
Moldova vs Bulgaria
Our prediction: Bulgaria Away Win ✗ Missed
SOLID PREDICTIONConfidence ThresholdGoalence groups predictions into three tiers by the probability of the picked outcome: Elite (≥ 70%), Safe (55-70%), and Normal (< 55%). Accuracy is reported separately for each tier so users can see how the model performs at its strongest signal.→
Bulgaria Away Win
58%
Predicted score: 1-2
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match ResultMatch Result (1X2)The traditional outcome market: Home win (1), Draw (X), or Away win (2). Goalence outputs three probabilities summing to 100% for every fixture.→
Over/Under 2.5Over/Under 2.5A prediction market that resolves Over if the total goals in the match are 3 or more, Under if 2 or fewer. Computed from Goalence's two lambdas: P(home_goals + away_goals ≥ 3).→
Both Teams ScoreBTTS — Both Teams To ScoreA prediction market that resolves Yes if both teams score at least one goal in the match, No otherwise. Goalence outputs a BTTS probability for every fixture by integrating the Poisson distribution over scorelines.→
Most Likely Scores
1-2
9.9%
0-1
8.9%
0-2
8.9%
Pre-match Outlook
Bulgaria enter this International Friendlies fixture with a measured advantage over Moldova (58% confidence, SOLID tier) and a projected 1-2 result.
Both teams are projected to score (58% BTTS yes), suggesting an open contest where neither defense fully shuts down the opponent.
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Moldova vs Bulgaria — Bulgaria Away Win: 58%.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.