🌍 International Friendlies · Friendly International
Niger vs Mauritania
Jun 05, 12:00 PM
○ Normal PREDICTION
Niger Home Win
49%
Predicted score: 1-0
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Most Likely Scores
1-0
16.0%
2-0
10.4%
2-1
8.3%
Pre-match Outlook
Niger enter this International Friendlies fixture with a measured advantage over Mauritania (49% confidence, Normal tier) and a projected 1-0 result.
Goal volume is muted — λ 1.31 for Niger, λ 0.80 for Mauritania, total 2.10; under 2.5 carries 65% weight.
In this International Friendlies context, small swings in form or selection can flip the projection — treat the moderate-confidence pick as a starting point rather than a lock.
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Niger vs Mauritania — Niger Home Win: 49%. λ (Home): 1.31 · λ (Away): 0.80.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.