🌍 International Friendlies · Friendly International
Paraguay vs Nicaragua
Jun 05, 10:15 PM · Estadio Defensores del Chaco
🔥 ELITE PREDICTION
Paraguay Home Win
88%
Predicted score: 2-0
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Paraguay88%
Draw11%
Nicaragua1%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 (3+)41%
Under 2.5 (0-2)59%
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes4%
BTTS: No96%
Most Likely Scores
2-0
25.3%
1-0
22.4%
3-0
19.1%
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Paraguay vs Nicaragua — Paraguay Home Win: 88%. λ (Home): 2.26 · λ (Away): 0.05.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.