🌍 International Friendlies · Friendly International
Poland vs Nigeria
Jun 03, 06:45 PM · PGE Narodowy
○ Normal PREDICTION
Nigeria Away Win
43%
Predicted score: 1-2
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Poland32%
Draw24%
Nigeria43%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 (3+)57%
Under 2.5 (0-2)43%
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes60%
BTTS: No40%
Most Likely Scores
1-2
9.0%
0-1
8.2%
0-2
6.6%
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Poland vs Nigeria — Nigeria Away Win: 43%. λ (Home): 1.36 · λ (Away): 1.61.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.