🌍 International Friendlies · Friendly International
Poland vs Ukraine
May 31, 03:30 PM · Tarczynski Arena
○ Normal PREDICTION
Poland Home Win
49%
Predicted score: 2-1
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Poland49%
Draw21%
Ukraine30%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 (3+)71%
Under 2.5 (0-2)29%
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes70%
BTTS: No30%
Most Likely Scores
2-1
8.8%
3-1
6.0%
2-0
5.5%
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Poland vs Ukraine — Poland Home Win: 49%. λ (Home): 2.06 · λ (Away): 1.59.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.