goalence

🌍 International Friendlies · Friendly International

Puerto Rico vs Saudi Arabia

Jun 05, 11:00 PM

SAFE PREDICTION

Saudi Arabia Away Win

64%

Predicted score: 0-2

Outcome Probabilities

1X2 — Match Result

Puerto Rico16%
Draw20%
Saudi Arabia64%

Over/Under 2.5

Over 2.5 (3+)59%
Under 2.5 (0-2)41%

Both Teams Score

BTTS: Yes54%
BTTS: No46%

Most Likely Scores

0-2

10.3%

1-2

9.9%

0-1

9.8%

Pre-match Outlook

Goalence's Pi-Ratings model gives Saudi Arabia a clear edge against Puerto Rico in International Friendlies — 64% confidence (SAFE tier) with an expected scoreline of 0-2.

Expected goals lean high — λ 0.96 for Puerto Rico, λ 2.10 for Saudi Arabia, summing to 3.06; over 2.5 sits at 59% probability.

Both teams are projected to score (54% BTTS yes), suggesting an open contest where neither defense fully shuts down the opponent.

How the Model Works

We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.

Puerto Rico vs Saudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia Away Win: 64%. λ (Home): 0.96 · λ (Away): 2.10.

Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.