🌍 International Friendlies · Friendly International
Puerto Rico vs Saudi Arabia
Jun 05, 11:00 PM
⭐ SAFE PREDICTION
Saudi Arabia Away Win
64%
Predicted score: 0-2
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Most Likely Scores
0-2
10.3%
1-2
9.9%
0-1
9.8%
Pre-match Outlook
Goalence's Pi-Ratings model gives Saudi Arabia a clear edge against Puerto Rico in International Friendlies — 64% confidence (SAFE tier) with an expected scoreline of 0-2.
Expected goals lean high — λ 0.96 for Puerto Rico, λ 2.10 for Saudi Arabia, summing to 3.06; over 2.5 sits at 59% probability.
Both teams are projected to score (54% BTTS yes), suggesting an open contest where neither defense fully shuts down the opponent.
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Puerto Rico vs Saudi Arabia — Saudi Arabia Away Win: 64%. λ (Home): 0.96 · λ (Away): 2.10.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.