🌍 International Friendlies · Friendly International
Spain vs Iraq
Jun 04, 07:00 PM · Estadio Municipal de Riazor
🔥 ELITE PREDICTION
Spain Home Win
92%
Predicted score: 2-0
Outcome Probabilities
1X2 — Match Result
Spain92%
Draw7%
Iraq1%
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 (3+)54%
Under 2.5 (0-2)46%
Both Teams Score
BTTS: Yes9%
BTTS: No91%
Most Likely Scores
2-0
21.9%
3-0
20.1%
1-0
15.8%
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Spain vs Iraq — Spain Home Win: 92%. λ (Home): 2.76 · λ (Away): 0.10.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.